Countdown to Scarcity: Navigating the Impact of Bitcoin's Halving - TOKEN2049 Dubai 2024

all right everybody so we're about is it 11 hours away from the biggest party in crypto is that right check my watch um Bitcoin having is coming up guys I don't know if you heard what is the Bitcoin having Greg it's the World Cup of Bitcoin David okay it's uh it refers to the mining rewards that are that go to those that process the Bitcoin transactions in the Bitcoin Network so today prehab the entire network earns 900 coins a day so every 10 minutes a block is awarded and that block will will pay six and a quarter Bitcoin to the random uh Miner that uh sort of solves the blockchain for that uh that single block so it's like a 400,000 reward the having refers to the the algorithmic cut uh that's sort of pre-baked into the um you know Bitcoin code okay that will cut the that reward from six and a quar Bitcoin down to 3 and E Bitcoin like it's approximately every four years um which is how how it's set up okay so Jian you're telling me that you're now going to only make a function if if it's a mining pool of 3.125 Bitcoin coin every 10 minutes or so if the reward is one um meaning you're a Bitcoin minor right are you about to get a pay cut what are you about to get a pay cut uh are you about to make less money uh no uh I started a bco mining since uh 2013 and I I've already experienced the four times of uh Bon hopping every round of Bon Haring uh the company previous co-founded B main the revenue and a profit goes up significantly more than next round and to be very clear your bit main was the largest supplier of Asic chips for example so tightly related to the Bitcoin maret space yes so because after every round of Bitcoin Hing the Bitcoin price surges up and the whole Industries gets uh much much bigger than before so every business in this industry gets much bigger than before I mean we've seen some of the numbers um the first Bitcoin having it was something like $12 per Bitcoin the next time was about 600 some odd dollars per Bitcoin then it was $8,600 per Bitcoin and today it's about 65,000 as I speak M um is it going to be the same way I mean look at the end of the day cycles almost always end don't they yeah I think the my view is that it's not like history always repeats itself but it sort of Rhymes right so I think you can look at the past historical data and then that's it captures the people's behavior in a way right so it's onchain data capture of how the market and people reacted to bitcoin Hing and I think human behavior like doesn't doesn't change like that much right so you can project that a little bit forward so this could just be basically a marketing Ploy right that say the having may or may not be what's really significant here it's what happens in between the having that really matters would you say that's the case bill yeah I've never felt that that the having itself is what's driving the price I mean it's supply and demand and you know the supply is basically being mostly locked up by long-term holders now the demand is increasing significantly um we all know the narrative around the ETFs in the US that has brought in mostly retail going into 401k's IRAs it has not yet brought in hedge funds and large institutions that would use the securitized version of Bitcoin to increase their Holdings that's coming soon so we let's talk a lot more about that I just wanted to make sure that the thesis was correct that bit the Bitcoin has itself wasn't necessarily the the accelerator Catalyst no I think it's a question of liquidity and network effects right right so so when you have a deflationary asset right like Bitcoin and you have a depreciating asset in the dollar right you have infinitely increasing Supply and you have decreasing availability of Bitcoin right and and increasing demand via things like ETFs and you know the narrative around the four turning which is really starting to take hold not not just in our Maxi communities but in the real real world right it's it's a recipe for continued growth I mean everybody focuses on the price and that's fine it's fair and it does drive the economy of of crypto the Bitcoin price yeah and so we should talk about it but ultimately I think we're about to see an explosion in use cases for crypto Bitcoin especially right defi on bitcoin stable coins and a whole bunch of other things that that you know stacks and others are working on that I think is the really important part of the narrative for for what's happening right now in in Bitcoin and crypto I want to dive deep into that but for the moment I was want to talk a few more numbers so something like 19.7 million Bitcoin have thus far been Creed it'ss just under that at the moment um and of course everyone here knows there's only going to be 21 million Bitcoin ever at least probably um Jan let me ask you something of the 19 .7 million Bitcoin in circulation how much do you think it's actually in circulation or better yet do you think people have lost Bitcoin in the past is it hiding somewhere yeah it's uh very obvious that satosi already lost his Bitcoin already right so and uh lots of other people uh frequently reported on the internet we see that they lost their key and or uh maybe their house uh uh got burn and the key lost and uh uh um I think such kind of things happens a lot especially Bitcoin was the very first uh cryptocurrency invented uh in the world and at the early days people don't give a a about it so they just carelessly well yeah that wallet was terrible software when you think about it right yeah uh but uh the after Bitcoin people LS about the experience so yeah for lots of other coins it's less than likely that lot of people lost of the ca okay the breakage is probably 20% by the way it might be 20% Which is you know that's 4 million right and so so it's this is a non-trivial point about you know the future of of what the supply is and and the actual math that goes underneath underneath the dynamic of what drives Bitcoin but and the math matters wouldn't you say Greg it matters which I think you can't really overstate the meaning of the ETFs being added to the marketplace and we're talking about us spot ETFs to be very clear correct just just us spot ETFs so if you took Black Rock by themselves so in the past three months they've gone from zero to 17 billion if the next in the next month they add only another billion that's 530 coins a day of additional demand at the current bitcoin price and as we talked about with the having we're only producing another 450 coins per day so Black Rock alone can by themselves swamp this market so I think like my my thought for Bitcoin and really with the those that are running the ETFs my belief is that they're being very measured with how much marketing they're doing in their own networks and in their own systems because Black Rock which is the world's largest asset manager at 10 trillion you know with with retirement Savings in the us alone at 20 trillion they can have a they could create a bubble in bitcoin price if they really explode the amount of capital that that is allowed to go into the ETF so I think they really need to be careful with the how far they open the spet okay so Mone I know that being a certified financial adviser is not your day job let's put it that way but at the same time what does he mean by they haven't been making use of their distribution channels yet because overall there's about 77 billion US of Bitcoin currently locked locked in these Bitcoin ETFs you spot Bitcoin ETFs for American I think the the best way to think of this is that most of the ETFs internally they have different levels right so let's say they're operating at level one which is inbound people who are already interested in Bitcoin they're calling them they're calling Black Rock and saying Hey I want to build a position can you do that for me now and they can the next level is when they start using their distribution channels which is outbound like they are actually calling like it's the reverse of it and that's the bigger channel right and they they're they're not doing that right now as far as from what I've heard from some some colleagues and the next level is actually automatic allocation which is what most most passive investors do that their their manager just does Auto allocation from like one thing to the other if Bitcoin becomes like a permanent part like at whatever percent that's a lot of capital that would be flowing through these ETFs so the way I think about the ETFs another thing that people like don't fully appreciate is ETFs are kind of like the API to the rest of Wall Street so now Bitcoin is plugged into the rest of Wal stre and there will be other types of financial products that will be made and they will keep coming out because this is what Wall Street does right like they see demand for something they're going to not just have these pure vanilla ETFs they're going to come up with new more complicated more interesting products that are built around the the the basic sort of like structure of the ETF and start selling those to their their customers as well so the theory is anyway that there should be even more wall street inflows from us Capital alone from us retirement funds Etc that could be funding the well I say driving the demand side for Bitcoin meanwhile the supply side we've already covered is pretty well fixed and if anything is smaller than the numbers would otherwise dictate is that correct bill yeah I mean we are a registered investment adviser at Abra so we're we're a fiduciary on behalf of our clients I think the ETFs are fantastic marketing vehicle uh I think it's like like I said earlier largely retail driven you know Black Rock basically creating ETFs on behalf of retail the institutions are coming but I actually think it opens The Floodgate for registered investment advisers the and the equivalent of the RAS in the US all over the world especially in Southeast Asia and Europe because those clients traditionally they don't they're not just buying ETFs they're buying ETFs of gold they're actually buying gold and so what's going to happen is these separately managed accounts which are managing way more than what black rock is managing it's probably in the aggregate $30 trillion globally you're going to see these separately managed accounts start to hold Bitcoin and ethereum and and and some other coins and Mass because the raas trusted what black rock is doing now for their own clients and they're not going to want to hold an ETF especially the wealthy they're going to want to hold something that trades 144 hours right unlike the ETF which trades 35 hours a week and and they're going to want to borrow against it right which you can do uh via the smas or separately managed accounts which is what we offer now and and I think it's this has just been a fantastic marketing vehicle because all of these raas are coming to us now and saying hey you know what's the right way for me to offer this to my clients and he said well it depends who your clients are but large High net worth clients they don't want to hold ETFs they want to hold something they can borrow against and is tax efficient and trades 247 if you were holding $50 million of Bitcoin and you need to sell a little bit on Sunday because you know some war was to Happ do that W account right okay well there's another thing that we should mention we've been talking heck of a lot about the us but I'm pretty sure we're here in Dubai right now and the United States is only about 3% of the glob global population even if it's a slightly larger percentage of global GDP um John you you're from Singapore and you've also happen to have a an asset management firm you know that you've helped co-found do you see demand for Bitcoin increasing in countries beyond the United States yeah of course I think uh the increasing for Bitcoin outside of us is uh will be much uh uh faster than inside the US uh because uh Bitcoin is kind of gold-like asset that people want to hold it as a kind of hedge of the timate political or geopolitical risk and such kind of insecure of sense of insecurity I think is is much much stronger um for the people living outside of the US than inside of the US uh as as an asset for them to secure their wealth to store it somehow uh yes for example what if the look currency collapsed uh what if uh the local government doesn't allow uh them to take money outside of the country anymore controls yeah and if they hold gold go is not very easy to carry on the plane and the getaway uh especially in Wartime and everything like gold will be freezed what what if you want you send your wife and kids to London to have a safe life and you have to leave inside of council to fight gold cannot be C away but Bitcoin can so um such kind of a situation such kind of a varus is more obvious uh for people uh that leing outside of the US so yeah so it's even more reason for people to own Bitcoin yes well let's talk about things Beyond Bitcoin is digital gold that's pretty much what we've been talking about here for the most part um it seems pretty interesting what about Bitcoin as digital oil that is say fuel to be used now there was a point in time I want to go back in history where there was this product called rootstock that was trying to go and build smart contracts on bitcoin or adjacent to it then there was another product called Stacks I don't know if you've heard of it m was trying to do this as well and kind of a lot more whizbang um but now it seems like everyone wants to be a Bitcoin layer too am I crazy or are there like 50 of these things right now no I think I honestly think that this is this is a very very large market and we're at a very early stage of it because if you look at ethereum um I think depends on when you measure how you measure it but something like 35% of the capital e capital is actively deployed like either earning you know base yield from the protocol or deployed in smart contracts basically it's productive Capital so it's not like for example ether sitting in an ETF doing nothing it's making money or doing something like that it's like a productive compo it's actually deployed if you look at Bitcoin which is the best form of money like it's the most pristine Capital that we have less than 1% of that is deployed in doing anything yeah and that even even even if 10% of that gets deployed that's hundreds of billions of dollars that's just sitting there which developers can actually program against so it's a massive massive opportunity and I think we have just been sort of like we never had the right infrastructure and the tools and and and the industry sort of like found it easier to go and start other networks like I know the salana guys Raj was here or Avalanche is here sometimes it's easier to start new netbooks than to try and build their own Bitcoin so that was a hard thing that you know people had stacks and some other project they kept doing and now I think the technology and the infrastructure is ripe enough that it's relatively easy for people to come and build these l2s and I think that's that's like massively happening so the l2s are going to exist apparently um are you telling me that there's going to be applications running on bitcoin like Bitcoin defi is going to be a real thing yeah what's it going to be like and the reason I'm asking is I want to understand what that means for market dynamics later on and we've got the experts here to talk about that yeah so think of this way that even if you look at ethereum when the gas fees go up on eel one most of the traffic is moving to eel 2s even if you go to ethereum conference right like most people are just talking about l2s there's arbitrum optimism Bas like all these very hard to run a DEX on ethereum Main net because the the gas FS go up like it's it's a it's just a user demand thing like you can't have millions of users using e L1 because the gas prices are going to spike and then they have to go to L2 the same thing is happening on bitcoin because of projects like ordinals and other BRC 20s the the gas fees did a 500x increase last year and I think they're about to go crazy with ordinals when that kind of came a meme when ordinals happen so I think for the first time people who are using Bitcoin they saw how expensive it's getting and then it's very easy to do the math that if the L1 is sort of like not working because it's like so expensive people are going to start moving to the l2s but the Bitcoin l2s aren't ready yet even Stacks like Stacks there's a current version that is sort of like slow like Bitcoin like every 10 10 minutes a block comes the network capacity isn't very large and the main version that we've been working on for the last two years or so uh that's actually going live very soon and I think that I would consider like the first good use X L2 uh that would be live for Bitcoin I think that's that's a pretty big deal so there's none now I want to make sure again we have a state of affairs that where today there's a lot of real I'm going to call it non ordinals non Bitcoin trading transactions maybe some minor transactions happening on bitcoin is that correct they're they're very early St like even if you look at lightning like lightning has been around some people use it but in terms of like like hey is it really easy to use yet no more more work is needed there are liquidity issues there routing issues and so on same B stack so I think some projects are there like there are four of them but now there are 50 more launching right that's exciting like now it's a category and people are going to throw a lot of experiments out there and some of them are going to stick some of them are actually going to going going to work and I think most people would actually use end up using BTC on l2s rather than L1 like a couple years well is value going to acre to the Bitcoin network from these l2s because this is something I've got to tell you that other layer ones have to are worried about right which is to say are transactions actually going to appear there um are we going to see more transactions and transaction fees for Bitcoin miners what do you think Greg do you think the l2s are good for Bitcoin we we've seen the transaction fees we starting this may there was a step change in the fees that miners are actually recovering from Network utilization and that was largely related to the ordinals and I I would be surprised if that reverse course so I think you know fees and transactions on the network they it seems to be we're still early days and the the that step change happened really this year and so uh the 2023 right with or and so Jian I want to ask you as well do you think let me do you think ordinals are going to stick around because we did see an enormous Rush at the time but we also saw that a lot of ethereum based nfts didn't last do you believe in nordal the only reason I ask is I want to understand if it's going to have a permanent impact on bitcoin yeah I think the AOS will be there because AOS uh can be it's not only about uh kind of functional tokens or uh gpg uh pictures nfts uh it's is also be going to be programmable can be kind of a foundation uh for the security of some other L tools um and uh people also uh think highly possible that uh some new OP code like opcat will be enable more um programability for the bco n one uh to enable the bco n 2 uh so I think Auditors will be there because Auditors is much more than the pictures and the nfts that's very interesting so ordinal can be more than just just for those in the audience than essentially a Bitcoin version of an nft that could be used for stable coins sure yeah I think it's it's almost like a uh a standard to embed data on on the L1 people are using it for all sorts of things there's like a news service running where people are embedding like news articles on on chain they're like archived forever so that's just like one example but in in general like I think um um coming back to the question you had about uh impact on the value of BDC yeah I think Bitcoin is only going to become more and more valuable because of these use cases right like think about l2s like I l2s are like you know how ETFs are buying up Bitcoin and sort of like you know it's like a black hole for Bitcoin um and it increases demand l2s are like that each L2 would attract like hundreds of millions or billions of dollars of BTC Capital to go into the L2 increasing demand for Bitcoin these l2s will be competing with each other because they all want to attract the Bitcoin tvl to come there right so they're going to have very interesting sort of like uh impact on how valuable BTC actually becomes because there's more demand and there's more usage of it okay so I'm seeing a supply shock on one side I'm seeing Bitcoin demand increasing from Bitcoin ETFs from evidently Bitcoin utility is this correct certified financial adviser um I mean look the the interesting thing about ordinals is is that there's a there's a fixed number of Satoshi that you can put meta information in which is what creates the value regardless of what you're using it for whether it's to store a picture of a wizard or a key that unlocks the door whatever the application is right unlike ethereum where you can create an infinite number of collections each with an infinite number of tokens inside those collections so that's interesting right um I think for for me the RE the the thing that we're most excited about is that you know we see a natural interest rate on bitcoin which for us is clearly the the the biggest driver of our wealth management business like 90% of deposits are you say an interest rate Bitcoin or interest of Bitcoin no interest rate for Bitcoin itself right people wanting to earn yield on Bitcoin today that that the vast majority of that is well for us 100% of that comes from defi which means we're wrapping Bitcoin to use it on the ethereum network which today today which you know on the surface as a as a as a bitcoiner makes no sense but there's no other way if it's defi based and so that has a complexity it's a centralized process even though there's a dow that manages it it costs several basis points of the amount of Bitcoin that you're wrapping and unwrapping to create the wrapped Bitcoin and it's it's not an efficient process it's great once you're in the defi contract but until then you've got all this physical real world stuff to do if there was a way to do that in a Bitcoin native model it would be faster and cheaper and optimize this kind of you know natural interest rate we're seeing because the the interest rate is probably 8 to 10% right now which is really interesting uh but it's not for the faint of heart in order to get there right and so you know we're good at extracting because that's what we do but but but it you know it does come at a cost it's it's not you know easily scalable and doing that on bitcoin itself just makes a lot of sense and you know it's not there yet but I think it's coming so Bitcoin mining one of the big issues I think that we've seen I think this is something we should present to everyone um is that there are a lot of detractors against it and I wonder because we've been really optimistic here do we need to be worried about Elizabeth Warren and other people in the United States and elsewhere who are imposing energy taxes on bitcoin could this hurt Bitcoin Greg yeah so hey the the biggest miners in the in the US all got letters from Elizabeth Warren you know sort of asking hey what's how much do you pollute it's pretty you know pretty nasty sorts of questions obviously with the intent to either regulate or tax miners um which I think is sort of missing the point in the US and most of the world we don't decide which uses of Power are good versus bad so if we start taxing Bitcoin minor should we tax uh social media data centers or distilleries or casinos so we haven't done it yet and I think it would not it's unlikely to happen um but Bitcoin miners are big consumers of power so we're easy to Target um which I think we could do an entire panel on sort of the the coming crisis to the US power grid which has not had demand for about 15 years we're now going to see demand of about 100 gaws in the next five years well it's not just Bitcoin mining it's true also there's a lot of AI high high threshold compute correct well and for for for miners miners might add say 10 gaws of the of the you know 90 or 100 of of incremental demand so for the first time in the past 15 years we're having to compete with a better capitalized uh group of super scalers that don't care as much about the cost of power so it's a that that will be a headwind for our industry probably more than any potential regulation when what are the other risks I mean again I don't want to be too optimistic here because everything I'm hearing is so great um there's got to be something bad coming up the pike like Risk to to bin RIS to bitcoin I think in some ways like you know it's still early days right like we're we're um a lot of people think that they're late to bitcoin and I keep telling them that you know everyone is early to this technology right now like imagine at some point billions of people will be using it right like we're nowhere close to that right now but I do think specifically Bitcoin itself has been deest a lot like this network has been running for like 10 plus years the software is getting more mature there's a culture of like just not changing Bitcoin L1 that much and I think once the l2s take off that will actually even aify Bitcoin L1 even more because there would be a very strong argument that why are you trying to mess around with the L1 when you can do the experiments on the L2 right so I think l2s would actually help aify Bitcoin and in some ways even like drisk it yes the L2 itself might be more risky but but then it's more like a hot wallet right like your cold wallet is always like Bitcoin L1 and that's where you keep most most of your savings bill is there a centralization risk I mean at the end of the day Bitcoin could conceivably be 51% attacked yeah maybe but I look this has been an existential risk you know in the earliest days of Bitcoin you the Reddit speculation was always oh you know a government could buy you know go to Jan and buy all the as6 and you know make a make jhan the first trillionaire but own the network John you wouldn't sell the government all the as6 would you no it's sound doable yeah it's uh it was better to attack Bitcoin 10 years ago and right now I think it's the impossible it's untenable now yeah yeah it's untenable now and so I think I think the there is no existential risk to bitcoin at this point I think all the use cases we're talking about are fun and speculative you know I think you know I'm excited about stacks and other applications but right now Bitcoin is really good at one thing and has been good at one thing and the the network just gets harder and harder and harder and that's what we want we want a hardened Network and it's it's the most impressive piece of software technology that we've ever created as far as I'm concerned and it's really good at one thing and and a lot of these applications we're speculating about are actually well better much better suited for ethereum and salana right now and that may change over time um but it's not the case today right you know and and so we have to be we should be realistic about how things work and why right you know Jan uh kind of touched on this a little bit as he was describing why there was more demand perhaps for Bitcoin in countries outside the US but certainly it does feel like we're entering a moment in time historically where there's going to be a lot more conflict and the Libertarians since the very beginning have been saying that Bitcoin could be a hedge instrument against political and geopolitical instability is that still true man I I'll tell you a personal story right so um I had to take I usually don't travel on planes with Bitcoin on me right like you should never do that but for whatever reason for work I had to travel with some amount of Bitcoin I wouldn't say how much and then I was I was telling my team that can you can imagine if I had to transfer this x amount of value in gold bars like how like so imagine or even stacks of cash or stacks of cash it's just impossible you wouldn't be able to fly you wouldn't be able to carry that much money with you and with Bitcoin it was like seamless it's like a USB drive nobody even notices it even through like security checkpoints and whatnot and I think that that thing is very real especially in in terms of conflict if you want to have your life savings with you and you're actually moving countries or moving cities or travel Ling around that's a very real thing Greg what do you think you know a lot of the Bitcoin narrative is around like the coming collapse of the US dollar and the stats just don't like hey I'm a huge fan of Bitcoin but not because the dollar is going to fail in in the next 10 years or 20 years so the stats that supported actually brought it with me just to not not mess it up um US GDP did today is 28 trillion uh in 10 years expect to be 42 trillion US debt right now is 35 trillion expected to be 54 trillion so the fact is the extra say 2 trillion a year of deficit spending is resulting in a pretty big GDP growth that's keeping our debt to GDP ratio still around like 1.25 the point you're trying to say is the US isn't going anywhere in Bitcoin still going to do well is that correct the sky isn't falling say you it's an US dollar yeah don't don't buy Bitcoin because the sky is falling on the US dollar it's going to take a it will ultimately happen it is a slow train wreck we're we're going to crash the currency but it's going to take us a couple generations to do the job fully yeah but Bill are people going to buy Bitcoin fearing this anyway I mean again from a pure pragmatic perspective are there people who the same people who are buying I don't know gold bars or digging trenches to save themselves from the coming apocalypse are they buying Bitcoin no so so I think let's break down what's happened just in this past week and put it in perspective right so so we all saw what happened this weekend drones heading to to Israel the price of crypto fell price of gold went up um unfortunately this morning we saw what happened happened uh price of crypto immediately fell price of gold went up why is that happening right well it's very simple hedge funds Sovereign wealth funds governments are protecting themselves by buying Bitcoin um by buying gold they're they're buying gold immediately they're not buying Bitcoin they will eventually but they're not now right it's retail investors that are afraid because right now on its path to becoming the digital gold the safe haven asset it is a risk on asset it it is which just but it's on its way to becoming something else we want it to be there but it's not it's on its way okay and so that is what is likely to continue to happen until those same institutions Sovereign wealth funds governments are willing to make the same purchase of gold in the digital form of gold and they're not yet there that's why you see this disparity now as a risk on asset that has a fixed float I'm talking about Bitcoin specifically that is going to drive the price narrative for another decade with in terms of exponential growth and that's still going to be based upon liquidity and network effects right so that's going to Independent of of War which is always going to have a negative short shortest term usually after war starts risk on assets explode right um and so that's what I predict is going to happen here as well and and so that is going to continue for Bitcoin probably for another 5 to 10 years well let's I want to focus on the next four years for a moment okay because supposedly tomorrow we're going to go and see the Bitcoin having that big celebration where I'm hoping all of you guys are throwing parties I will be attending but four years later we're going to see another having John your what is that fifth it'll be what are you most excited about for Bitcoin in the next four years what do you think might be something transformative that we should be looking forward to uh I think it's about the social consensus around Bitcoin as a better gold uh because uh right now we still uh can see as Bill said the institutions still haven't realized that the big actually is a much better go uh than the fiscal go um the institutions haven't realized it yet you think yeah because uh I think four years from now uh people will know that for private sector uh Bitcoin is much better and only for those central banks and the governments that they couldn't or they uh haven't uh they don't have the need to round away from their own countries they they just stock out and for all the private sectors they will Place Bitcoin over gold as a kind of Hedge for their risks M what do you think next four years what are you most excited about I think one one metric that um I'd be very excited about is when the Bitcoin transaction fees or gas fees they become more than the coinbase rewards so the next ho the miners would actually be making more money on network usage and not on just the block rewards because the block rewards are are going to continue to go down that would mean that the network is now self uh sustainable like so it's not Reliant at that point upon it's not reliant on bitcoin block rewards to to secure the network and it's still sustainable Greg are you guys modeling that in as a are you thinking about that that's not something that that that we underwrite um like in our annual budget but we we just sort of take it as a bonus you know when it happens transaction fees transaction fees for now for now but it should it should become a part of of the the future of the mining Bo and Jan um Bitcoin defi I just want to ask about this this is kind of a subset of everything it may or may not affect bitcoin price seems like people think here it will but do we think that we're going to see the types of trading volumes on that as we have or even more that we on ethereum and salana based dexes for example do we think that defi is going to take off on bitcoin because to me personally that's what's most exciting which is native defi yeah I think maybe right now the Prov for Bitcoin D2 or uh Bitcoin D5 is that there are two M competitions and the winess uh is not still obvious but I think maybe take another 12 18 months we will see who is going to be the winner uh in the Bitcoin ne2 competition and at that time I I'm not sure it will be much higher than ethereum uh but uh uh but I think it will be comparable out the volume yeah to you Bitcoin is more than just an asset I I think you're a real believer so I've got to ask from a I guess practical perspective for society what do you think Bitcoin can do in the next four years yeah I mean my hope I'll give you two perspectives my hope is is that we get to a point where you know as the people's money globally we uh that Bitcoin can be used peer-to-peer the way it was originally intended even if it's via layer tws and you know Interac via stable coins created on the Bitcoin Network maybe synthetic as well so that we're not relying upon you know government related regulated Banks to store the underlying dollars uh to become a true peer-to-peer Network I think that's going to take more than four years to become a a real thing but I think that with all the competition that we're seeing now among startups to do this we're going to see the first Live use cases of that purely on Bitcoin in the next 18 months and and I'm excited about that well I hope to have this conversation again four years from now when we celebrate the next Bitcoin having thank you gentlemen very much it's been a great panel you thank you so much