The Interplay Between Crypto and Global Macro - TOKEN2049 London 2022

good afternoon good evening great to be here we've decided we're going to skip the intros uh you can just Google us um and we'll we'll just go through the elephant in the room which I think at least my impression is has been under discussed which is you know FTX and binance and just as an opening remark I mean personally I'm so effing tired of people pretending to run a first-class business in the first class way and then it just turns out to be completely different and it's actually a macro event because it's you know something like a Layman type of moment for our space what do you think Dan me yeah yeah well hello everybody um I know cheery moment today all right everything is coming uh under attack and floating even as we sit here look I think that there's you know they're bad actors in every business um I was saying before to you I think you know the commingling of funds um if that indeed did happen uh I mean it's super negative and um I think we'll bring a lot of scrutiny um but look you know in every business even outside of crypto they're bad actors and certainly our job or my job as an investor is not to invest in those companies and so I mean just my own experience last year we passed 10t passed on over 100 different companies and many of those companies are now not around so look it's trust but verify and you know I think it's uh we don't really know yet I mean I'm a little hesitant to talk about it because we don't really have the facts I just heard rumor there was a 10 billion dollar hole but I don't know if that's true um so I think within the next few days we'll know more but clearly a lot of bad leverage in the system yeah and um and I guess whatever way that plays out you know whether that's you know Vinings actually following through in the agreement or letting it drop uh we don't know that because like you say it's a dynamic situation but regardless of the outcome it is a defining moment because regulation is going to be more astringent I presume in a way we've got the decoration that a lot of people were asking for for all the wrong reasons now yeah but the question is regulation by who I mean by this is a decentralized global business is it just the US okay so if the U.S increases some sort of Regulation what about the rest of the world there is no Global regulator right so I look the good and the bad thing about came here hello the good and the bad thing about crypto is that it is pure capitalism there is no com no one coming in to save there's no government there's no large you know a bank and crypto blockchain Bitcoin has lived through this before maybe not to this degree but I think it's weeding out the Bad actors is fine so I don't I mean thankfully we uh have not been you know hurting this but I know a lot of people have and that's difficult but and they'll learn and it'll improve next time so and hopefully we'll get stronger Jody what do you I think clearly we are early not just price wise but in the sense of nobody knows what the hell they're doing in the room there's no adults we expect tier one like you said kind of Institutions to be run properly and we are so early that we're still figuring out the right way to set all these industries up I think there's obviously going to be a lot of bitcoiners we're gonna say this is kind of proof of the whole you know you're not your keys not your coins self-custody and a lot of decentralized exchanges potentially will start to get traction because you'll have proof of Reserves it is completely mind-blowing to me like 48 hours later I still can't believe that FTX customer deposits are not like available quickly to withdraw or even possibly at all to withdraw I think a lot of us are shocked in the industry I do think we'll you know eventually bounce back the one thing that's been clear from all these Cycles is that fundamentally there's a lot of demand for digital assets people want to hold digital assets especially young people they're not talking about um you know gold and bonds they're talking about cryptos and it expresses digital age and it expresses the way that business happens online so one way or another the industry is not dead but at the same time we will have to learn a lot from these mistakes okay it works um it's not getting killed it's definitely a setback I mean talking to clients talking to clients this morning I mean it's clearly understandable that nobody they're gonna get off my lawn you know I don't really want to talk about digital assets right now and I kind of smelled it on Sunday I was withdrawing a little bit of Bitcoin from FDX because I trade on FTX and like I've done that before just putting it on onto Ledger um it always worked within 30 minutes and 18 hours later it just had process so I kind of like oh wow I got it done but then they stopped right um so it is it is a negative you know for my business for an asset management business for your business Sean Marie how are you are you affected by that type of stuff or are you completely out of it 2022 has been a difficult year in terms of news flow and you know we're coming from the community background and I can't prevent to think about Brian Hunter who Define natural gas market when you exploded yes you can think about Enron and the oil market and you can think about better shaft and every single time there was a poster child of their time and of their industry and better governance and better things came out after that so you know Sam was a poster child for the last two to three years what has happened has clearly transformed the industry as you said it's a setback for a lot of investors who were taking confidence to see you know names you know Global you know tiger Global uh South Bank like big names investing behind putting massive valuation justifying valuation to some degree and that was really confidence you know you get big asset manager coming in this in the ecosystem because they're feeling we're missing something if this other guy are doing it what are we not doing correctly and we are now at this point where we're going to redefine uh what is a proper run business you know Dan was talking about who is regulating that and how do you regulate your Global business this way I think Bitcoin and crypto in general all the time has been very good at self-regulating itself and self-publishing um a few different you know if you remember bitfinex in 2016 like sounds like decades ago or like very very long time ago um they shut down at four o'clock the market was 650 at the time and by the time within 15 minutes it was like 450 or 420. the market reaction to that is very different except for ftt today like the maturity in the market is very different the liquidity is very different so it's not going to disappear we didn't Define really what was the foreign FTX you know is it the solvency problem or liquidity problem so it's a duration they have in the book which is at play it doesn't remove the problem of playing with customer fund and the community issue that Dad is mentioning is tragic um but you know that the answer to the problem would be very very different once the problem is identify and shared you know like we can speculate a lot not many people knows exactly what's happening behind the door CZ is far well known for being the guy calling the shot so it's probably doing that himself and finance and and running this discussion not sure who's running it from FTX style so time would say and hopefully we get some form of resolution because you know ultimately this there is something to sort out FTX remain a good asset you know just as a technology play and there's something there to buy there's a customer base there's plenty of things to to think about when you look just at FTS of the company you know the management can go but you know the what is there can be transformed I didn't go back look I think they have fantastic technology I like using the you know their app there's nothing wrong with it but let's move on from FTX because it's really nothing that we can I mean we can speculate about it but you know the next 48 hours uh will be all the wiser um but clearly I mean it is a setback as we have said during a crypto bear Market where a lot of things are already headwinds like investors portfolios are largely on fire be that 60 40 or the NASDAQ or strong Dollar on inflation in higher AIDS and the entire macro construct and a war and then you have something like that which is kind of like oh here's another kick into a place where it really hurts but maybe let's talk about the macro because that's actually the topic of final panel it's not what's going to happen to FTX where do you see something change I mean Dan do you think uh it'll have to do with central banks have they tightened too much have they not tightened too much back to the old line uh macro try to find macro yeah look I mean I think it's been pretty clear at least for a few months um that all the forward-looking data in the U.S is showing a pretty severe slowdown in growth and inflation next year so you know this is the first time at least that I can remember and I mean at least 30 years where the FED has focused its policy on the two most lagging pieces of information that we get which is the unemployment rate in the CPI all the leading indicators are suggesting a pretty hardcore slowdown and this is the only fed that I can remember that is basically continuing to raise even though the very clear signs of a big slowdown next year and again they've made two mistakes already they've got caught the CPI hit 8.3 and they went you know completely the other way this is early in the year in March and completely the other way in terms of being aggressive and I think they have over tightened and they'll do it again then the yield Curve will get more inverted and I suspect the economy especially housing is going to be completely annihilated U.

S U.S mortgage U.S mortgage rate at seven and a half percent the whole industry shuts down so it's just that it's taking some time to happen but I think the FED will have to relent and it's possible the dollar is already peaked I mean because the dollar is very sensitive to this and the markets are beginning the sense there's too much data this is the most like obvious I think most obvious coming slow down that any macro guy has ever seen and so the markets which price things ahead of time I think are starting to to show that and um and that'll I think eventually be supportive for for uh crypto as well like you say the leading indicators they're all pointing South you know yeah DPI is pointing South uh in q1 next year but you think he's going to do another 75 picks just to to have I don't think it matters I think that the market sort of priced that and um I think it just it's a matter of how much the yield curve inverts so the tenure will can I think will continue to Rally the yields I think will drop over the next six to nine months for sure so regardless of what he does in the front end and then I think he'll end up having to reverse um you know so I actually share the same opinion but when I tell that to my friends they like hey Moritz what you're forgetting is inflation could actually be way stickier so you have like CPI pointing down and growth flowing down but what if inflation is going to be so sticky because of like you know energy is still you know remains high and shortages that type of stuff and therefore you know that just cannot relent they will keep on being pocket but uh so I mean I think first of all the right medicine is not necessarily rate hikes and they're doing a lot of rate hikes nothing's been happening there is a lot of other tools uh we're in the UK and actually I've been following the UK situation pretty closely I think um you know Liz truss kind of showed us what the worst macro policy you can have worse than anything we've ever seen where she just came in and said you know we're gonna have free energy no bills you don't have to pay any for anything and you know we're going to cut taxes we're gonna just like unleash stimulus as if she's trying to like fun run a recession that needs to happen anyway but we actually somehow got adults in the room the system kind of fixed itself through the pension threat which obviously like at the end of the day most voters are going to eventually receive a pension and if you take that away they're going to change their tune really quickly so I think right now in the UK we're seeing very proper policy which is I think what the US should be doing uh using fiscal policy so you know tax hikes sometimes can slow down things a little bit we had Trump implemented you know corporate tax cuts which the Democrats try to get back all the way and they couldn't get that through it only went kind of partially up um I think that would be a much better tool for slowing down hiring just kind of going straight to the problem with the scalpel instead of using interest rates which is just such a blunt tool it has all these other knock-on effects of liquidity and then like treasuries nobody really knows when treasuries are going to give in uh we saw it in the UK and we've seen signs of it in the US I trade a lot of treasuries and I see like liquidity unless you go past like the five year in the back of the Curve it might just give out at some point like you know there might be an auction and like nobody wants to buy 30-year when they have no kind of visibility as to how that's going to perform so I think ultimately they will be forced to Pivot I don't think we're going to see another 75 because they are starting to get Rumblings inside the FED that you know let's slow down maybe like we can do 25s for a while and see what happens but um I think we're kind of reaching towards the end of the hiking cycle let me bring you back to the crypto uh Jean-Marie and tie it up for you um if what we're saying is true that at some point you know uh we're going to see lower rates again less inflation you know all of that is that going to be the Tailwind for crypto is that going to be ending our bear Market well the question is are we going to see inflation dropping back to previous level or to settle in the level Which is higher than what we know but it's supportable so another way is the said a goal to take your money away but at a more acceptable rate than 10 a year and I think when people start to realize that you know the inflation Matrix are not really read properly and understood properly the interests of crypto as you know a potential reserved value for themselves for individual investors become very apparent and that's why I think you get another you know Tailwind into crypto when people start to say hold on wait a second what are people telling me and what is really happening to my savings and that's when you see the you know token before decoupling happening all this kind of elements happening in crypto so time to say but you know we're in Industry where we need to be positive about it so well look we we just don't know that's the thing right but let's just imagine we're at that point at that low point and the markets turn around I mean what crypto assets do you think are going to be the most sensitive to that turnaround in other words have the highest beta to the top side um would you say that's the time to be long Bitcoin because Bitcoin has kind of underperformed relative to ethereum or it's more like an ethereum play I mean what the heck does that even mean like when people say oh we're going to be exposed to blockchain technology as well if you buy Bitcoin you're exposed to one iteration of a blockchain technology that happens to have a gold narrative or digital gold narrative for the time being which is a meme and maybe changing over time you can do this this with ethereum and yet it's like a smart Contracting application that you're then exposed to that doesn't mean that you have broad-based DLT exposure so how would you if you just imagine a paper portfolio position that for best growth uh once we've reached the bottom well we look a lot at diversification play in crypto and the power of diversification over the years was not that strong now I think it's the question of what do you buy you know if you're looking at you know Reserve value people differently go for Bitcoin and ultimately there is a function of allocation which is part of the market capitalization of the underlying so people will follow that now if you buy a 30 if you're buying the tech play as well there's like the old technology pricing which is completely missed right now with ethereum about this massive internet computer which is changing the Way businesses are built you know like all the decentralized app to look at things like you know Sushi swap are they all these massive applications which are built on or units which are built on on the ethereum network this is not priced in you know like if you look at the revenue Mutual generated through that and start to add that back in the in the Matrix of evaluating ethereum or what is the real value of a Toyota you see a complete different picture so I think you need to you know almost cut in half your way you look at it one way you get your reserve of value and then you have the technology play which is completely I'm not looked at right now because people are just focusing on reserve value how about you Jody are you a Bitcoin bull ethereum ball everything ball how would you do it uh those two so I think ethereum is going to have this like amazing flywheel based on the deflation narrative once the system starts to get liquidity again again we will see that flywheel take off basically we saw the equivalent of you know a happening or multiple happenings during a bear Market which is not really the time where that narrative can play out so you know it it went up and then it was just to sell the sell the news so I think when we actually reinflate it will probably be like a very very well performing asset uh probably better than everything below ethereum in terms of Bitcoin it's kind of binary in my mind that I'm looking forward to getting uh some of Dan's thoughts on it as well but gold is obviously underperformed the last years compared to what people were expecting back when interest rates were very low obviously now it has the headwind of you know not not being able to match five percent yield I think ultimately like Bitcoin is trying to position itself in a similar way and in my eyes it's all about narrative if because it's a coordination game if bitcoin's narrative does pick up it can be extremely powerful um if people just kind of stay focused on other things and not on hard money and inflation is not really kind of a problem to be solved because ultimately Bitcoin is a solution to like you know debasement um then if you just kind of get into technology and pan genomics and all this kind of stuff then you have to kind of look at ethereum as having that flywheel now Dan in your world does Bitcoin play a role I mean the debasement argument I think is a great one you know that that is the one that counts for me um but you're with 10t I mean does does Bitcoin play a role or do you go like oh everything is an adventure well uh so I mean the way I see it there's Bitcoin and ethereum those are really the only two proven assets everything else is an experiment or Venture investment we don't really do Venture as far as I I see I mean 10t we've invested in we're growth Equity uh mid uh mid-stage companies that have Revenue you know between at least minimum 50 to 100 million in Revenue so we don't actually own any of the tokens of course many of the tokens are owned on balance sheet of some of these companies but for me that look the most important thing in this space um when I launched this thing was to solve for volatility I mean the key is to be able to be stuck in to hold on to be in the space for 10 years and not get blown out and so that's why I launched a 10-year life private Equity Fund I wanted to be long the businesses in the space that we're going to be leveraged to growth in the overall ecosystem I didn't want to bet on any single blockchain or cryptocurrency just because I didn't really have that skill set and the guys at Andreessen and polychain and all of them they've got you know programmers taking apart each chain and deciding you know which is going to be better for this thing or that thing um you know that's not really our skill set so I don't look at this world in the way that you would I'm not looking to be the number one performer in fact we definitely will not be the kind of returns I'm trying to make are let's say five to ten times over a 10-year period but compared to some of the guys who are running liquid token funds they were up you know 10x last year on on the uh but on the flip side you know we're not doing that badly this year and we're doing okay so you know I felt like you know our strategy and this is your question you know how to play for the upside um you know may underperform on the upside but we're you know outperforming I think on the downside and so I don't have any fear I'm not worried about FTX or SBF or any of that I'm just not it's not um and I'm not trading either which I think is extremely difficult in this space unless you're a real Pro this is not for civilians so I think really if you really want to make the money in this space it's about how you structure your investment so that you can sleep well at night and that's it really and just get stuck in and don't let the swings drive you nuts that's what we do 10 years look up but you have less volatility than VC yeah but do other assets attract fi assets play a role for use no I mean the old no because I mean on a long-term basis they're just not that interesting I mean I think gold is the best Hedge for the old system so you know you started to see gold pick up a little bit because it's sensing that growth and inflation are going to be softer next year the dollar softened a bit I I definitely you know this inverted yield Curve will lead to a gold rally um you know liquidity the FED has been tightening um pretty severely and so gold came down you know as it normally would and gold I think will you know will be a good return will provide a good return to the next sort of 18 months or so but it's not anything I'm focused I mean I focus on it it's hard for me not to to think about it and look at I have my Bloomberg and I I see what the markets are doing but I don't think those opportunities are interesting compared to what's in front of us in this space even with SBF and all this nonsense I mean I think this is the greatest macro investment I've seen in 30 years I mean it's the digitization of value I don't know it's a bigger trade than the digitization of all value and so that's what how I'm trying to play I'm trying to I just want to capture it right and not get shaken right right so it sounds like you've placed you've had I mean I'm still trading all sorts of markets uh because I find it interesting you sound like you've placed well I'm much older than you and I get all that interesting stuff um and I you know I like to maximize my energy input to profit output and so I've decided not to be active in this market because in the crypto space because to be active would mean to have a team of 20 people and be around the clock and you could earn a certain return and maybe a high return but that really isn't the way to build wealth in my view on this structural change it's to be long the companies and businesses that are winning and do something unique and special and are going to be around five to ten years from now and in the old world there's no the the it's very difficult to have a similar type of risk reward profile and you also have thousands if not hundreds of thousands of competitors as far as I know still today tenti is the only growth Equity Fund that only focuses on crypto blockchain you know businesses so that's kind of crazy I've got I mean I'm sure they're going to be more competitors um but why would I do anything else aside from that right I tried treasuries against a hundred thousand people globally all those eyeballs on the Bloomberg I mean I did that in the 90s and 2000s and that was great but to me that's not a wealth building exercise in other words no no I I get it and and so Sean Marie you have the commodity background I mean you look at natural gases that's still something that you can't stay away from because it's just moving so much I stopped trading Commodities in 2013 and focused still in the cryptos in them so and I just like make the change a bit like then I just like said I need to turn the page and I'm embracing a new paradigm so it was from one story to another so turn the page clear cut I'm still following I'm still looking from time to time but I'm not shredding Jordy I still trade uh traditional markets as well I find them fascinating I guess um not as uh many decades in where you know I've kind of seen that done that yield Crow inverts goes back um I do think that the a lot of my thinking around crypto came from macro I first got into crypto looking for you know first I had all my money in Gold I would earn my my bonus and I would just buy gold Futures and you know pay that every month I would have to you know you pay some discount as you're rolling the Futures and I would just accept it as this is kind of a an acceptable way for me to avoid the Fiat game and you know covet hit and I realized like gold is actually probably not great because first of all central banks own most of it like the major ones so they can determine what happens with the price if they they have it you can't really custody yet you can't know how much there is or how much there's going to be so getting into crypto from that mindset is a very pure way to kind of open your eyes and accept that there's some solution that can be found here um I still think you know for me personally it it helps to look at interest rates and look at exactly like what the government is doing because um like last year the only way I could make sense of the crypto markets was looking at how much liquidity they had pumped in and like realizing that this is just money that doesn't know where to go and all the valuations are crazy but it's because what's like the alternative like there is no like real place to go Tina yep you know Jack's AMC GameStop I mean you know all of that happened but um hey we have less than 10 minutes left and we decided to invite you to ask us some questions you can really ask us anything if you want we're not promising any answers at least not good ones but I thought that would be more interesting if you have any questions on macro crypto whatever just uh shoot away does that sound good there we go you get a mic what's up dog um I know I know you don't want to talk about specific quants um but like the Primitive of ethereum the fact that there is application there will be being built on top of it um do you think that it's inevitable that eventually the flipping will happen I I do have some views on The Flipping I think there's way too much talk and focus on it like things can flip and be flipping they're totally different assets and they can outperform in different environments and I don't think that a flipping will necessarily mean you know the coin is dead and like in king ethereum forever um if you use first principles first of all if there is a flipping even if that lasts and Bitcoin does go down there's no reason why there is not going to be a reflipping of something else like something else comes on and I'm not saying that it exists it might not be like one of the existing top 10 coins but somebody comes up with a new technology it's just a lot better better programming language and that flippins again so I don't know that it's good to think about in the in these terms and I don't like that people focus on this kind of competition I think these are mutually there's some overlap in certain ways but they are quite different assets I mean especially now with proof of stake it's just completely different asset the the amount of censorship resistance can be comparable but it's very different type of censorship resistance so um I do I do think it's possible in the flywheel effect a lot of liquidity ethereum comes up but Bitcoin has something unique that it will never lose which is kind of its provenance and like you know being first and having that chilling point so you can always come back and um it really just depends on like where Society focuses for that you know decade or for that period of time yeah you want to say something otherwise I could just say if I may I don't really care about it to be quite honest I'm long both I think ethereum has something going for it uh it's going through a lot of change it has gone through a lot of change it will go into sharding next year probably um and look it's a it's the largest smart Contracting platform a lot of these exciting applications are going to be built on it um it's potentially less inflationary potentially deflationary um that by itself actually will give us some monetary value so I think the output for ethereum is really is really positive in the long run and whether it's the larger asset or larger than Bitcoin it's really you see whatever I mean the key is that they both grow yes and I think that that they will yeah me too they will both grow but I think actually the flipping is like a very stratified argument and it's like being number one number between the 14 500 it's like it's just an argument for the CEO nobody cares if you're number one number two in the Fortune 500 but the CEOs so I think here is like really take play and you know I like both for very very different reasons and as Dan said as everybody understands things like this about they can both grow in very different manners and you know answering very different needs next question nothing come on okay there we go there's one yes shy okay so talking more about like macro uh economy uh to what extent do you believe that this recession is gonna reach are we gonna see something that happened in 2008 as Dan said with housing market crash sure we're gonna see more like 1920s 1930s scenario what's fair speculation on that I mean look I I respond right away I mean I think it's um uh I don't see a 30s situation um I think that part of the difference is you know we still have this framework of the FED um you know responding to Major crises I don't think that's going to go away um you know I I think when the data slows enough for them or we have a proper financial accident um I think they'll they'll respond also look we have more um gross outstanding debt today certainly than in the 70s and more than any time ever this is another reason why I don't think it is the 70s things will slow more um and there's too much debt for them not to bring down the interest rate I mean I mean there's some crazy studies out there that show if you know the rate stays at five or six percent what it does for total you know World um uh interest payments it's just it's just absurd that being said look I don't think bringing greats down back to zero again is necessarily a healthy thing long term uh I don't know that rates should be there but I think if they have to be there that they should be there and this is and I don't see why any fed wouldn't accommodate that so I don't again what I think is more likely is that they've over tightened things completely vaporize they then cut in panic again too much and then we go all the way back up on another inflationary Type move because they've overdone it and you're starting to get defaults I mean what happened in the UK you should talk about a little bit this I mean the back end of the yield curve basically stopped trading and um I mean that was the first shot across the bow that told you that there were new things coming and I think gold started to respond to that as well that there are going to be other events and arguably what's happening in crypto would not have happened uh had it not been that so much liquidity was pulled out of the system so I think it's it's greater probability that we have increased volatility in the macro cycle than I do a 1930s it's bad forever um I thought about this a lot over the last few years ever since covet especially where you start seeing k-shaped recoveries the so-called kind of you know divergences and I think it's not going to be 1930 it's not going to be 1970s this is like a unique time one of the things I've noticed over over the years is every time the FED bails out inequality increases because the system by which they re-inflate the economy really helps certain segments of asset holders really helps like certain segments of people being kind of close to the source of the money so-called countion effect which we you know we've seen historically and I think increasingly the amount of inequality and kind of k-shaped divergences starts to play out politically like we saw this with Donald Trump we saw this with the brexit and I think like the political effects of a recession that might not be like necessarily deep for everybody but for certain segments of the population who like you know just are very unhappy with their economic situation the government will is in my opinion possibly have to step in in a sort of big government way and redistribute wealth and that's why you kind of I see a lot of more taxation possibly and a lot more Ubi coming just looking at the time if you factor what you said with the election coming into the U.S like in 2024 you get like a massive you know run for addiction and American people vote basically they are 401k and the wealth was a 401k so you're going to get some reaction there to support that I I would want to bring it around um to crypto again because I have this thought that it's possible that if we get this severe slowdown you're talking about and let's say it doesn't you know they don't respond enough and they have a hard time pumping the the um the patient again that there's a chance that there's a movement away from the traditional world and maybe to the crypto world I know it seems crazy today to think that but I think it's possibility for the FED in the next cycle to lose some of that credibility that they've had for so many years um I don't know what you guys think about that but in the back of my mind especially with people under 40 under 35 who are owning uh crypto seeing that as an alternative to eight guys sitting in DC around the table trying to make a decision and figure out the cycle if they mess it up again people might just say you know what look let's go to a math base a system will they bring you back to the white paper from Satoshi yeah exactly the quote from Satoshi was asked about that so that's exactly right get back I think there's two factors of play here you have central banks slowly but surely losing their independence and their Firepower and that's because fiscal government stimulus all taxation all of that stuff takes the front row seat and central banks have a reactionary function that is less prominent now and then you combine that I think with what Dan just said is there's a new generation out there of younger people that are currently building a new digital world in front of our eyes and they are upset with the system that they have observed for the last 20 to 30 years or maybe only 20 years and I don't think that they'll be just saying oh we accept it we'll just accept that there's a fed or an ECB or look at what the bill we didn't even talk about Japan which would have been interesting with you know you know if you are 20 today very likely you're going to be saying screw that I don't want that anymore it has to be a different system and I guess this is what really the long-term view for me is is that these tokens and coins Technologies whatever math based wolf based cryptographic systems are way out they are a better alternative there is an alternative which is this but it's a very volatile path to get there um you have yeah we have we okay so you have the mic so you've been granted a question final one thanks I have a question a few years ago there was a narrative around Bitcoin and crypto that it was kind of decoupled from traditional markets the stock market but as we have seen since Kobe with low interest rates and now High interest rates how the crypto Market is crashing or we see that crypto is just an integrated part of traditional finance and macro and you know it's the fed that's deciding it's not decoupling from traditional markets is that what we're seeing now happening with crypto it's all it's all part of the same big market movement well I don't think it is I mean look Bitcoin has become more of a real I would call even more established asset and so yes it's going to move end ethereum as well a little bit with ups and downs of liquidity mostly because I think there are futures for both of them and so now you have you know I was in the hedge fund business for 25 years you have hedge fund traders who trade Futures and it's part of their portfolio and so when liquidity comes in or goes out it impacts them but over the long term I think there's zero correlation between Bitcoin and let's say the S P 500 and I always say in the last 10 years Bitcoin is up 99 you know 0.9 percent against the s p future um every asset in the world is devalued massively against Bitcoin ethereum and some of the other you know leading tokens and so I don't know that the next 10 years will be so severe but um I think it'll continue to be that way so I have a slightly different view which is definitely until now we do have this correlation and part of the reason is Bitcoin is a piggy bank people kind of put their savings into it they're happy to kind of put discretionary income save it in there and what happens is everybody wants to put money in the piggy bank at the same time and then everybody wants to take it out and break the piggy bank at the same time and if there's no kind of structural code that you know limits like a good idea would be something that as more people put in it just prints more so it dilutes it and it kind of keeps the price if it's steady and then maybe uses that money to buy back when when price falls back down is currently the way it's constructed is indeed like everyone is kind of wanting to go in the same direction or go out at the same direction and it depends on like how rich or poor they feel which sadly is just a part of the kind of micro cycle so I think that I agree with Dan over time that can change but I do see an element where inherently incentives wise that there is that correlation yeah well I think the correlation element is almost like a fulfilling prophecy that all industry wanted to get the institution to come and yeah okay so let's say you get tiger Global coming in well tiger Global come also with his risk management team and the principle of risk management that applied to crypto is the various things they will apply to any stock or any position in the book so you're down 10 you're out you don't fall in those position or as any crypto order would be very happy to say okay I'm down 25 50 18 doesn't matter it's like I'm here for the long term so you end up with this kind of massive asymmetry of expectation between the institutional money you expect to be there to bring liquidity and their real management of this liquidity which recreates naturally the correlation because they apply to also as a class in the very similar manner so you know I think it's part of the you know it came with what we wanted you know what an institution to adopt it and by having institution adopting it the factor we created with a similar risk management framework taking it away from the uh you know people believe in Bitcoin and you see it's a True Believer versus the people who just dread it and that's kind of quite a different all right so you've got all the smart answers I could only screw about now so shut up um thank you very much ladies and gentlemen [Applause]