Is the Bull Market Over Before It Started? - TOKEN2049 Dubai 2024

so for the end of the day a little bit of food for thought um it's not so much about bitmax we want to show or share our view on the markets so just one sentence bitmax is one of the leading and oldest crypto derivatives exchanges in the world we're welcoming any professional Traders we are basically a good mixture between a centralized and a decentralized exchange we have proof of reserves proof of liabilities covering more than 90% of all of our assets and we do it twice a week so stay tuned but what it is about is where are we in the market we're meeting here at token 2049 people are excited finally the bull market has started for us as Traders we are Traders not so much investors and Builders um we look at timing timing really is of essence if you trade and when you when you want to make a living out of trading so what is it to look for for me it's always two things as a Trader what actually pushes money and funds into the crypto ecosystem which is a macro environment and the second one is how attractive is that crypto ecosystem and how much is it adopted so it's a self self-fulfilling prophecy and a self reestablishing feedback loop so let's go for Global macroeconomics first the thing that drives crypto adoption especially for main coins is global debt levels inflation and monetary policy and while people think right now and this is the positive side of things that this is over it's not this shows you the growth rate of debt of public debt in global economies like the United States the Euro Zone Japan and China and what you see is not only that it grows percentage wise but even the percentage rate is growing so you have what many people don't see or don't see really a exponential growth in public debt usually exponential growth in public debt goes to interest rates and inflation rates we have seen High inflation in the last two years and we have seen the reaction of major economies for growing interest rates growing interest rates so the risk-free rates is actually bad for anything that happens in crypto because crypto is a risk bearing asset and at the same time um you have now higher interest rates higher Returns on risk-free assets or so-called risk-free assets so you see the debt cycle actually is good the interest rates do not call for any major action yet yet but then the question is how did that work with the rising prices we had interesting thing here is if you look at the up here last cycle first interest rates fell with that the debt levels and the liquidity Supply Rose and then you had the Bitcoin price action this time actually the Bitcoin price already leap frocked the actual interest rate environment so you see that on that end bit coin went up and with it the whole crypto market cap but interest rates have haven't come down so you see that's maturity meaning you trade expectations but expectations actually can be um well well they you you can disappoint your expectations and then you have a correction so here it's a little bit of risk as well because depending on how long the interest rates will stay higher there is the opportunity for correction so this is what drives money and funding into the crypto ecosystem and it starts with Bitcoin it starts with the main coins and then it trickles down into everything else like the meme coins the level twos Etc so but what is the attractiveness of the crypto market so we see this event it's great and you see that total market cap is close to an all-time high which is the first step to new all-time highs this is good again so that's a self- enforcing or reinforcing feedback loop what is good too and what I usually show to my friends is this chart it's the crypto adoption that is untouched you see the total addresses of Bitcoin and total addresses of e as well as the usdt addresses it's constantly growing since 2018 and even before that but it's growing heavily right so this gives you hey crypto adoption is on the rise a little bit of caution if you compare the active addresses which actually gives you how many people or how much transactions there are it's a pretty stable one which is interesting so it's not stable it went up so if you go for the Bitcoin addresses here from 3 million to now more five million-ish it is growth but it's much lower than you would expect on an intuitive level if you see the total addresses so on E it's even more so and that means the really active people in the crypto space are more or less the same all the time which is good and bad at the same time it is good because there is a lot of opportunity it's not so good because it means this bull run that takes us to the really Next Level isn't there yet so what is different to the years before or to the last cycle as well is that institutional money comes to crypto space not so much to meme coins not so much to nfts but to anything else we had the ETFs we will have more ETFs to come so and why is that the case because of regulatory process all of us might not like regulation probably maybe I don't know but at the same time it ensures that people come to the space and can come to the space that wouldn't touch it elsewise so this is a positive sign again so my take is yes we are in a bull run but we are halfway through we basically have seen the first price action that started already last year so like March April 2023 which means taking into account the usual crypto Cycles which are around two years we're halfway through so the question is what is to be expected as a Trader right I mean I'm not talking for Builders it's much more long term but as a Trader in crypto you're looking at something like 3 to six months ETF big thing everyone says that was a game Cher it was and then it wasn't why actually you see the ETF rise but it plateaus over the last couple of days we even had net outflows we will have new ETFs coming especially for ethereum as well as in Hong Kong so there will be more inflows but not on a very big scale from my point of view it's kind of a saturated Market and the thing is it happened before the Haring usually during Haring let's say before and after you have quite a lot of volatility because no one knows especially for Bitcoin I mean or for Bitcoin what miners will do will they sell off because they expect to go out of business will they huddle will they just cover their operating expenditures and no one actually knows you try to predict people try to predict that I think it's unpredictable but what you know is around having a lot of volatility and even opportunity opportunity or risks of Corrections what I wanted to show here is that the ETFs won't actually smoothen that out because there won't be an inflow in the next couple of weeks or months to come that is so huge that it will eat up the the the volatility so be cautious as a Trader interestingly we see an Rising open interest especially on bitcoin Futures which has probably to do with the ETFs because now tread fire guys can do with basis trade the basis trade is the most simple trade for Arbitrage in the crypto World it has driven the whole trading in crypto like for the past years um and now actually people don't need to touch a Satoshi to do that they buy Bitcoin ETFs and they sell Bitcoin on the CME fully US dollar just in the prime brokerage Market no no touch of fear or no touch of crypto at all question is what happens with those positions when they are Unwound so what happens will they roll or will people because the prices go down of Bitcoin just go out of their positions which would create a sell pressure because they will sell the ETFs the ETFs in turn need to sell Bitcoin and so you actually accelerate for me the ETFs can accelerate whatever we see in the market they don't drive it and meanwhile interesting again Bitcoin and ethereum exchange balances have reduced significantly in the last four years part of it due to decentralized finance good for the crypto ecosystem partly because those funds have flown into um into TR more trefi geared and more traditional institutional investors uh crypto wallets which are non which are not of exchange and basically self- custodial so which is good again and bad at the same time good for the def5 space not so good from my point of view and I'm not bashing bashing institutional but we lose the transparency in the market we can't follow what's going on anymore which was a big thing in crypto for a long time so what fueled the last crypto price and uh uh CH price appreciation and the adoption it was the previous Bitcoin Haring events media tension especially on bitcoin we had a lot of icos and stable coin issu issuance and the stable coin pickup we thought and everyone told you in the last Bull Run institutional investment will come but it never did the idea of distributed computing power especially in defi spurred the last run and we had micro frenzies like nfts ordinals and fan tokens that was it so what is it today we have again Bitcoin Haring so take the box we know how to deal with it the institutions are already here now which is they used the bare Market we have elections in the larger regions of the world which might cause some volatility we actually have a complete technological maturation of layer one networks from my point of view so I don't expect anything major to happen in level one networks we still have new chains coming but it's just a me too um Bitcoin actually now is the gold standard of the crypto ecosystem it is the reserve currency so I expect the other coins to grow much faster but Bitcoin still to grow too it's a little bit like not coming to The Narrative of the gold but like gold you hold gold and the more money you have you more absolutely hold in gold or hold in Gold but the other stuff is growing faster however the risk is bursting bubbles in heated markets I mean here it says like real estate and stock markets yes of course but even in in the crypto ecosystem as well we had the mem coin or we have the meme coins right now which is more consumer product and it's very interesting it's very exciting but it can end any time as the nft frenzy did last time so thank you and what I wanted to say with that is there is a lot of opportunity for Traders if you're willing to trade if you go in front of your screen if you analyze the market if you look at the DAT just write the volatility wave up and down because I expect it to be in a Range a little bit of a risk of a correction in the next month but overall until the end of the until the end of the year like Q3 uh in the middle of Q3 end of Q3 maybe new alltime Highs but it's not a given thing like what we see here tomorrow we will be at 100,000 so position yourself wisely and be prepared for for whatever what's out there we're trading like this we're happy and we love trading I hope some of you like trading as well and we welcome you on bitmax thanks for that guys