Trading Insights from On-Chain Data - TOKEN2049 Dubai 2024

hello um my name is key CEO and co-founder of crypto Quant we're going to talk talk I'm going to talk about um trading insights uh deriving from onchain data so a lot of people ask about ask us uh what is onchain data so data is basically um imagine you can see all the bank transactions around the world so um you can see you know settlement basically settlement data so this is this data uh crypto is the first kind of assets that uh execution and settlement happens at the same time so on you using onchain data you can do a lot of things for example what if we can see supply and demand for um Commodities and securities in every 15 seconds um like for example if I purchase orange juice in the market and then it recorded in orang chain and then you can basically calculate the demand for orange juice every block for ethereum it's uh 15 seconds so it it can change monetary policy around the world a lot if you monitor supply and demand quantitatively in every 15 seconds um so for example like in interest rates or com consumer uh indexes for now uh crypto is um still haven't been used for P2P payments so we can it some people say it's a speculative asset so crypto is uh onchain data for now is mostly monitor uh who's selling or who's buying so we can utilize onchain data um in three ways checking smart money monitoring third party risk and checking fundamentals so this is uh the current state of um the market so it's a this indicator is V RV market value to realiz Value um if you track realiz price um and compared to the market price right now uh it says if if this indicator says 2.7 um it that means the average cost basis pnl for all blockchain wallets is around 170% profit it so right now um historically Cy cyclical wise we're not like cyclical top yet um this is uh um you know by by reading the History compns part um um I would say like the average Co on p&l for now is not enough to top yet and if you see the distrib distribution uh by hband the Bitcoins that over that has been over six month um is it takes around 50% so whenever uh it gets to the cyclic top um this ratio goes below I'll say 20% Which means 80% um of for now it's a 50% of um if entire realiz market cap um it takes um take took by long-term holders so it's not like um it's early to say we're in the cylic I think um if you as you can see those indicators say these are pretty uh sometimes not accurate because there are exceptions so some people looking at the transactions so in order to see very like granular level of these type of data you have to see the transactions so we're uh checking those transactions some some of the transactions uh came from illicit money or early miners very old whales gambling websites so we're we've been investigating those transactions for about six years and now we launched uh some Innovative analytics tools for onchain analysts it's a so basically for now onchain metrix is pretty um it it's hard to see these metrics in the granular level so what uh exchange inflows uh It Go skyrocketed and then people say oh well are moving and then there's no actually uh trading insights out of those um exchange all exchange inflows because it's aggregated and there are so many Market participants so many exceptions out there so we uh we buil a cohort analysis tool so that people can filter out those transactions and then um calculate one single aggregated Matrix so for for example uh this is a realized price um comparison old whales versus new whales so their cost bases price is around for old whales it's uh 21k and shortterm whales which is ETFs tra traditional Finance who are using cust custodial wallets they're um their cost basis is around 60k this is very interesting chart um so if you see short-term cohort whales um the amount of money flowing into the market is like crazy so it's uh 1.8 million Bitcoins which is around $150 billion just flowing into the market via ETFs and custodial wallets um I I took a screenshot um for today so so this is a unrealized profit for whales and miners so um traditional Finance their profit is around 1% old whales 200% small miners 30% and institutional miners mining companies they're 81% so if you aside from the new liquidity in the into the market we can say it's to it's pretty early to take a profit for them um in term if you see the historical patterns and if you see okx binance wallet cohort um you know there is no significant inflows into deposit wallets not not like very uh not not like great sell off for now this is a you know indicator um for to see whales uh is are whales risk on or risk off so whenever whales uh decided to risk on they they move their Bitcoins to derivative exchanges from spot exchanges so well this is a indicator uh when in green zone um old whales they move their Bitcoins to derivative exchanges so for now PE whales are risk on mode which means um it's high likely we're in the bull market still because they're uh they put um their Bitcoins for collateral or to open at a uh long positions this is a realiz cap uh for retail investors um that Bitcoin AG band that is under one month so obviously retail is um now in the market it we're we're kind of spiked right now maybe this might pause the bull market and then we go sideways for the few months but obviously um like I said uh in terms of um supply and demand it's too early to to to take a profit for those entities this is a onee inactive Supply so um one year inactive Supply is around 70% which means still um over one year long-term holders they don't sell Bitcoins right now um not like aggressively so um these are um my opinions for the current state of a market uh you can visit our website and then uh check out those uh leading indicators thank you uh do you have any questions okay oh hello uh I'm a university student from Korea also uh I want to question about uh just like a Chaos Theory a small difference can make a big results uh in real life uh the people Panic leads to Bank Run and makes Bank destroyed and I think this tendency will be more harsh in cryptocurrencies uh are you are your company and system ready for uh emergency events like uh emergency event so you can uh you know what other your Bitcoin oh you saying contagion risk yeah yeah so uh we actually uh kind of predicted um FTX and Luna situation because uh we label their wallets and we noticed um this huge a large amount of Bitcoins flowing into the um gerini for you know to execute the orders um for market makers um and for FTX their Reserve uh declined over 93% in about two weeks which means they're you commingle customer assets to their funds so you can see all these activities uh in onchain and a lot of companies there disclose their proof of reserves and their labels uh transparently so I think uh aching data and these indicators is very helpful to see uh third party risk okay cool thank you so much much