Emad Mostaque - The Future of Crypto is AI - TOKEN2049 Singapore 2024

today I'm going talking about the future of crypto being AI I've been in crypto for about a decade now lost lots and lots of money um as I'm sure many of you have made some lost some as mentioned previously I was CEO of stability AI um we tried to compete with open AI did okay had about 300 million model downloads millions of developers um 500,000 community members and we ran 10,000 A1 100s to put that in context that's about 20 times the compute of NASA of course things have got a bit crazier now and the comput getting bigger and bigger and bigger and earlier this year I looked at that I was like do I race another few billion and compete or do I try something different what really matters and where are we in an AI future and that's what I'll be talking about today this is the number of earning transcripts on AI versus blockchain so it's clear that there's something with AI but what is the intersection between the two is there any why do we need it and will that make an impact I think the first thing I'd like to say is you know many of you who are crypto experts F fados AI is really tough this is the number of papers on AI every single month it's a literal exponential we had to build an AI to read the papers on AI uh in fact some of you might want to try Google has this amazing new thing notebook LM you can drop the Bitcoin white paper or an incredibly complicated one like IG layer on into subjectiv ity and it will generate a podcast of two people talking about the paper and it's pretty amazing it's what I do when I wake up in the mornings to try and feel smart now but I'd say that AI time is probably about three times crypto time in terms of speed and it's tough to keep on top of but there's some interesting things happening you can see the massive investment you know mooning $200 billion of computer investment coming in remedy a bit of the Bitcoin boom on compute but what that's enabling is now model that are hitting human level performance this is the test score of AI systems on various types of reading image language understanding and others we've reached a Tipping Point where really they're as good as a sleep deprived PhD student like they've got no memory they're a bit weird but they can do most of these things narrowly as well they have Goldfish Memory but things like that will be solved as an example of that we built a system at stability called com for UI whereby rather than having an image type in and it generate something you could have entire streams of nodes that captured every single image and data source and model and choice you made and if I shared that with you on a music or video or otherwise basis it reconstructs the whole flow this is one of the things we wrote about in a piece we released recently how to think about AI we're going to move from files to flows we're going to have memory in these systems State and then they become a gentic and do really interesting things for us like make videos do our crypto taxes in fact that's a great startup I'll invest in that if anyone is doing that crypto tax AI please there too much hassle but these AIS are also getting really engaging an example of this this is a chart on medical LMS medical language models now outperform human doctors not only on diagnosis but empathy and they're getting really really convincing so the question who's building these AIS you know what does it look like because those defaults become important if meta who I mean how many of you really trust meta are building it if you ask about Elon Musk it doesn't say nice things you ask about zy it says fantastic things this will be more and more important and we're seeing an emergence of this parallel to not your keys not your crypto and again I've lost many keys over the years you I'd help with that to not your models not your mind and when we think about how the world is and where the state of AI is and about to go this will become incredibly important this is one of my favorite slightly surprising charts um this is global IQ by country now humans are actually all about the same IQ when you normalize but this is an infrastructure question some of you might have seen the energy to GDP capita thing that's a bit crazy right but 98% of people believe they have an above average IQ you know so hopefully you know one of the 2% this is open ai's new model 01 has 120 IQ PhD level science top 500 maths Olympiad what does the world look like when everyone has an AI that's really interesting and I think again this is indicative of what the future of crypto may be now the IQ of the audience and the people here not sure you know we're assuming that we're probably talk cortile but where is this intersection between the what a blockchains useful and good for for me blockchains have three key characteristics verification coordination and resilience but smart contracts are dumb crypto is full of corruption I mean how many times you been rugged or attacked how much money has been lost there crypto lacks coordination how many side events are here my God you know like you keep going time like 18 talks this week let's do something there when I think about crypto what is it really about it's about agency some of you may have read The self- Sovereign the sovereign individual it's about self- sovereignty I have control I have not to rely on any intermediate I shouldn't have to trust the system the system should be Incorruptible this is the promise of Bitcoin where you do earn your keys you earn that but as we evolve from that we have all these different systems that led to rugs led to a corruptible system led to misalignment originally when we launched stability stability was meant to be a dow of dows based on our communities but I was like there's not much intelligence in Dows we should probably build it first and think about new ways to do things one of the key elements of crypto and transactions you know stepping from the Bitcoin white paper is self- Sovereign identity again again you don't know anyone and need any intermediate to transact in Bitcoin this is why as the previous panel said it's such a great hedge against Global disruption even Black Rock and others are saying that what we need now though is self- Sovereign intelligence because these AI were we representing us because to be honest they're smarter than us particularly when we haven't had our coffee in the mornings you know and they don't sleep and they're super executors before they get to Super intelligence this is happening in a time whereby there is this great open close Source debate at stability we built state-of-the-art models in every modality except for language even the language models are catching up now CU how much better than the data sets can you make the model so I think the Gap will close and again at shelling we'll do our part for that and I'll talk about that later the cost of compute to generate an intelligent outcome is also decreasing something like Gemini flash is 7 cents for a million words and again that can take your podcast and it can generate your TAP generate a cast out of it this is gp4 level intelligence it's a straight line almost down as you get improvements in data in inference quality and everything we need to move to a future where you own your data you own your model you own your intelligence because that's super important and again this is where the self- sovereignty comes in because not your keys not your crypto not your models not your mind and who decides the AI that runs your government that teaches your kids that they trust more than anyone so here's wonderful Sam malman if I weren't in on this I'd be like why do these get to decide what happened to me where is the governance surve and who's deciding the AI that will intermediate Our Lives who's building the AI to take the promise of web 3 and take it Forward given that it is open and available you can download stable diffusion permission llama permissionless what does that look like again we talking about intelligent verification coordination and resilience the promise of web 3 is now finally achievable through this technology why what is web 3 and how do we have it right now there's not much intelligence in there again smart contracts are dumb they don't always do what we say code is not audited the rails we have me Bots front running us all the time and then we've got the real world rugs and other things occurring with intelligence moving to the edge everyone now has a ability to have ai defending themselves again falic and I did something like DC defensive acceleration you have ai looking out for you on every single transaction an AI intermediating every single transaction and verifying who you're working with we can build the standard into smart contracts to turn them intelligent and that's a massive difference because ultimately what we want is aligned intelligence aligned AI aligned contracts I want to do something and I want to do it in a trustless way way you can do that through Edge intelligence you can do that through AIS that are transparent that balance markets you probably can't do that with black boxes because the black boxes can route any knowledge anywhere you want that was the issue with web to so we can't have centralized artificial intelligence that enables that we need intelligent coordination many of you have seen the emergence of av's rollups and others but what are they they are contextual trans action side chains so when you run on base it's optimized for financial services but then how do you bridge between one chain and another those are the key areas where you tend to have massive losses or when you're bridging between the real world and the digital world now with AI you'll have ai agents that can manage your Capital that are aligned with you that you own that you pay in gas which is basically comput that can execute transactions across domains across areas this is something that won't occur with the centralized systems like open Ai and others They Are Walled Gardens which means that people won't be able to put their own data forward and now we're seeing the emergence of data Dows we're seeing the emergence of coordination rails that agents can go across because will agents actually have bank accounts probably not they will transact in crypto of some form or another because they can transact faster than any human and they can transact intelligently this intelligence increase both on an individual level going to remember the IQ going up we probably increase Global IQ by 10 20 points which would be super exciting and the intelligence within crypto it'll be non-negotiable will you use a chain that doesn't have ai audited smart contracts you think about intents now they're very basic but again all the transactions you do in a crypto sense they're all ideal for agents and again who owns that agent is it someone else or is it you you need that selfs tget that's aligned with you that works forward you need the common rails that it can go and transpose upon that's how distributed Ledger system and then you need resilience okay it's not great when chains go down you know um let's face it but what makes chains go down right now a lot of the issues of blockchain is they don't scale because you run on a certain level of nose and you have inadequate redundancy or too much redundancy how much security is required for a transaction again you have a lot of things like Igan and others looking at that we finally have the ability to do intelligent customized data intelligent customized pricing in the future for example you will have a medical AI that gives you all the knowledge you could possibly want on Cancer and outperforms a human doctor on empathy when someone in your family gets cancer God forbid that's a massive difference difference and it's something that the medical system can't do now because doctors aren't that empathetic and they don't have that access on the financial side everyone will have access to the best financial advisors because again we can embed that in a model of just a few gigabytes big what does that mean for resilience and scalability it means that our nodes and our agents on the edge and in the cloud turn intelligent so we can actually scale seamlessly when you try and take people a team of 10 and you scale it to 200 what happens developers in this room you can't birth a baby in less than 9 months by adding more and more women right you can't program better it's Metar law it's a scaling thing but what we're seeing now with AI is that you can do that and this shows us something with regards to resilience and scaling where you can have defensive capabilities in Ai and intelligent scaling of AI this is what enabled open AI to have that leap 2011 the new generation of models lete if I kind of go back quickly can I jump just uh reminding people of this the big breakthrough has been going going from these very basic AIS that again have goldfish memories to more agentic agent based AIS what does that mean it means that when you're responding and interacting with stable diffusion of chat GPT it doesn't remember and have continuous learning you can't send it away and then it will go and do something new the next generation of AIS has what's known as inference time compute you just let it spend longer on the GPU and then it comes back with better answers and we see an almost linear scaling curve with that previously the only way to do that was to put stuff into these giant supercomputers again bigger than NASA or anything and then that scale linearly with that but if you asked it longer it wouldn't give you a better result everyone will be moving to the right including open source Ai and this locks the promise for example of decentralized AI or dpin as we see it right now so I'm on the board of render there's a million gpus there utilization is low because a you got to build the infrastructure but B we're waiting for this because then you don't need giant supercomputers anymore what you need is high quality basic models that can then become more and more intelligent by going away and doing the work and checking each other's answers swarms of intelligence and this is where you bring in the resilience because AIS can scale where humans can't scale because AIS don't have politics unless you ask them to you know AIS do not have communication issues they can understand each other particularly when we have common rails and this is where decentralized Ai and distributor systems I think are incredibly interesting so you can move to more robust systems you can move to systems where AI can check every transaction and work for you and again I can't see how that isn't the future of AI and the future of agency whereby we can address all of these right now now what does the system look like and the ecosystem look like for that there are many amazing smart people now entering this area because they've seen the issues with centralized Ai and they don't want it controlled so for example when open AI released d 2 before we released stable diffusion a couple of months before they banned all ukrainians and Ukrainian content from it why because they could what happens if someone turns off your intelligence you lose IQ points do you really want to live in a world like that no but this upgrade is a complicated upgrade where you have various different elements and parts of that so what we're doing is shelling is we're trying to in increase the average intelligence of humanity so when we release stable diffusion we were like the world's going to get more creative and happier we took 100,000 gigabytes of images and it's a 2 gigabyte file that will run on your smartphone you can download draw things on iOS and it just runs and it can make any image how crazy is that right and we like the world to get a bit weird but that's okay A bit of weird is okay you know now we think about the future who's going to build the AI that again teaches your kids runs your medical system runs your government financial system that's what we're focusing on but we realize that this couldn't be classical infrastructure this is actual infrastructure so vitalic buin has a great post about the revenue evil curve what happens typically as you build these systems is you restrict access to try and extract value from them and that leads to misalign ignment it leads to it closing up this is why open a and others are trying to put regulatory hurdles over all of this I believe that our communal knowledge on cancer autism multiple sclerosis education should be a common good but the question is how do we fund that how do we adapt to that because it's expensive a model training run might cost $100 million now that's how much gp4 cost or the new open AI model and can you scale to that when looking across the space I realized that we have one of the best examples of that in Bitcoin Bitcoin currently uses 160 tatt hours of energy on specialist compute all the data centers in the world use 360 tatt hours that's the level of specialist infrastructure that we've manag to do for sound money and that's amazing I think and again we've proved it with crypto that crypto incentives work what do we need to build models that mean that no one's ever alone again on their cancer demential autism Journey that allows us to put AI agents to organize all that knowledge and put it at your fingertips or have a self-learning education system for every child across the world we need compute now there are negative externalities from this as well in that why would you hire a graduate anymore for many jobs I mean they typically are a bit whiny and annoying you know and AI program is just as good but then as we move to a post labor monetary economy system what does money look like I think it has to be related to compute so when we looked at that we were like hm why don't we put superc computerss in every nation owned by the people of every nation to build the data sets of every nation because Malaysians should decide who educates Malaysians as should slovenians as should people in Bangladesh that has to be an end State the medical system of each of these countries will go from using this much intelligence to that much intelligence why do we use that to secure a Next Generation intelligent currency and use the intelligence to build a better and better Financial system that's distributed so at shelling that's what we're doing we're building these models for the common knowledge of humanity that you can then take permissionless we'll distribute them by torrent or whatever and integrate locally as we upgrade the intelligence of individuals and our systems that can then be used to secure the currency of the future and then we need to figure out what does a monetary economy look like when almost all knowledge work can be automated even with robots check out the unitary G1 $16,000 it can read a recipe and execute it flawlessly it can also run at 6 M hour which is a bit worrying maybe we should make it run a bit slower than humans you know but it'll be a dollar an hour in a few years for an AI robot that can do just about everything this is coming fast even as the economic system as the last panel said is declining and so we need this common infrastructure we need to build good standards and we've only got a short window to do this but if we manage to do that we'll have self- sov identity go to self- Sovereign intelligence we will increase the overall ability and int elligence of humanity I think that's super exciting when we started web 3 you know there was no deadline for this there was no an urgency now governments around the world want this technology people want this technology and they'll need this technology to catch up and this is the last stage before it goes everywhere because again we've given these models memory now we've moved to be able to have inference time Edge compute so you don't need the large superc compute clusters we need high quality base models and we need to colate that and again that's what we all do and we look forward to working with everyone around that to build a better less corruptible system one way you own your data model and intelligence one where you know this is solved intelligent verification coordinated resilience no more rugs you know let's make that happen let's have that system that we all deserve for us and the Next Generation and navigate this next period to have abundance so please you know come and join us at shelling AI for updates we'll have lots more soon and thank you all for listening