Crypto in the Eye of the Storm: Navigating Global Macro Shifts - TOKEN2049 Singapore 2024

as we all know we had a Fed cut uh I want to start by getting the panelists uh opinion here about the fed and what they thought about today's action and you know what are they expecting in the future so you want to start uh yeah sure hi everyone um uh hopefully you find the FED talk uh interesting usually most people get very bored when we talk about the Fed but uh it was I think the first thing to not about the FED cut is that barely anything happened and uh interestingly it was a really highrisk event uh a lot of people in the especially in the industry were thinking that this uh uh first move by the FED would literally trigger apocalypse because uh people in the industry been talking for uh uh year and a half now about how the fed the first fed Cuts tend to trigger uh recession which is not necessarily true were you surprised at I was not surprised it was basically the talk was 2550 and uh either 25 bibs cut or 50 and it didn't really matter there was so much emphasis on or on 50 may actually I in fact I think there was a big article by by Hayes about how the a 50 bip cut would be a a disaster for the industry and and and macro in general no and um it didn't really matter because what what really matters is the uh the long-term plans of the FED basically what they plan to do for the next year and a half and uh also more importantly how Powell handles um the room which he's become very good at handling the room what do you think Richard has he been good at handling the room yeah I think so I think to to me the biggest takeaway was a um you know whether it's proven right or wrong in 6 to 12 months time is the you know the effect the effective official trajectory now is for you know accommodating monetary policy for the next 18 months to two years so starting to run out of excuses for crypto not to start performing like a sort of high Bea Tech type exposure that it should be and I think we've um I guess sort of crossed that sort of that that sort of peak in monetary policy where it's now becoming supportive and you know with the inflation sticking a little higher than probably where it usually is at these sorts of these sorts of times you're starting to get to pretty you know close to zero or negative real rates which we all know is you know great for almost all asset classes yeah and what about over the next year uh the projections are you in line with what the market is expecting and you concerned that the economy might soften more uh and actually have impact on underlying activity no I think tonight things seem to be going kind of to to plan but you know 6 months down the track uh to see where we see where we're at I mean inflation to me is probably the uh sort of the key risk right like whether they they seem to be pretty confident they've got it under control numbers look okay but they're not great right and yeah I'm coming from a country in Australia where they definitely haven't got it under control so there can be kind of spot fires but it feels like after last night the Market's not going to worry until they're told otherwise okay Darius what's your fed take well you know the the last time the FED did this this uh cutting cycle we we saw Bitcoin go n uh you know I think there's a good chance that happens again um inflation is a concern more than anything else right uh I think the the yield curve is steepening the two stands are steepening so the market is concerned about that as well I think the one impact that is probably interesting is that uh you know um that other central banks would probably see this as aggressive and continue their cycle or rather be have even more conviction to keep cutting as well so uh the whole world goes into a bit of a easing cycle uh positive for assets and then you know push the whole inflation worry down the road but in the meantime I think uh hard to be bearish at this point uh you know um as history repeats itself uh I think we see the same results in asset prices what about the you know there's a bit of a Slowdown now in the Chinese economy and I'd love to get your sense of that being out here in Singapore I mean the data in China has been very soft and I think the fiveyear uh Chinese interest rate is even below 2% and so we don't in the US really talk much about we don't really you know get in in too much detail about the Chinese data but it seems to me that it's had some impact on the overall Global uh inflation uh absolutely absolutely um I guess one of the themes that we've been seeing the last one two years has been this deglobalization as well bit of a bation of what's happening in Asia and the US and uh Divergence as well um so you know I think China definitely affects uh uh the rather dampens inflation a little bit um but you know the asset prices are driven by the US market um you know I think the Chinese effect trickles in um but you know the you start to see a bit of uh Divergence between real economy and and uh um you know and U and asset prices stock markets crypto prices commodity prices as well so you know um I guess we will see some effect on dampening but at the same time it also causes supply side issues with with with with China and and that that you know at the same time uh could make inflation worse too yeah but I I guess the bottom line is is why do we care about macro at all right like what's the relevance and Richard I I don't know how much work you've done in terms of you know monitoring liquidity Cycles Etc but we care about what the central banks are doing essentially for that reason I don't know if you've done any work uh linking liquidity and Bitcoin Etc and if you have a comment about that at all I think liquidity is probably the best one you can find but I think at a an overall level as a house we generally take the view that crypto can be pretty uncorrelated for long periods of time and generally we see the correlations increase not at the extremes but outside of the norm so in a you know normal sort of Market where asset prices are kind of you know volatility is relatively low and asset prices are sort of trending mildly up or mildly down crypto lives and dies by the idiosyncratic factors that influence it you know things like regulation Innovation take ups those sorts of things our view is the correlations increase generally as you get more extreme events like in 2022 when you see material moves in asset prices or you see substantial rallies those th those um those correlations increase but as a general rule we generally think there you know the macro the the crypto specific factor is generally override in a normal Market Alex you do any work on liquid I think uh liquidity is uh actually a little bit overrated in the industry uh because asset prices are not really driven by liquidity now are mainly driven by expectations of liquidity so uh that's that's my take on liquidity mainly and and by the way sorry I want to I want to go back to to the FED a little bit um that I think is important to mention is this this thing going to going to re restructure what I tried to to to presentent at the beginning is uh when when the the FED starts an easing cycle if uh historically if they do it in a recessionary environment asset prices the S&P specifically uh goes up about 12% in the next six month uh 10% sorry uh and if it's in a recession environment soft Landing in a soft in a non-recession environment goes up 10% in a hard Landing or recession environment goes down 12% in a in the in the US in a recession um in a short recession of like let's say 6 months uh the S&P historically Falls 7% uh in a major recession 35% and Bitcoin is driven about 60% by the S&P nowadays so the uh the first move by the FED is at least considered to be extremely important based based precisely on the and there's this this very strong underlining fear in uh in allo macro and in crypto specifically that that a major recession is unavoidable and it's I think it's it's greatly linked to uh PTSD from FTX to be honest uh because uh the industry suffered so much that we are expecting apocalypse around the corner where is not not the case all right I'm going to I'm going to pull you back from apocalypse because even though I'm a macro guy I was never big on apocalypse um and you know normally you'd wait till the very end to ask this kind of question but given that the liquidity cycle and the rate cuts are just beginning now where do you think that that takes the Bitcoin price let's just say a year from now what do you what are you thinking Darius do you want to yeah I think a few ways to answer this firstly liquidity cycle yes and you know monetary policy has in terms of its importance to to bitcoin might actually be a bit secondary to fiscal policy right so you have continued spending uh you have wars that are still ongoing High fiscal spending that you know uh that that that that sets a base I think another thing that you see is uh let's say the Americanization of Bitcoin or you know where Bitcoin has become a lot more on American uh product because of the Bitcoin ETFs so you see a lot of you know a lot more demand and liquidity during Us hours through the ETF so you have this us onore participating as well so I think uh there's a Confluence of factors here right strong fiscal policy lose monetary policy uh us institutional guys getting involved not just in in Bitcoin but in uh in uh derivatives as well and then you see a a rotation of liquidity out of altcoins and even ethereum into Bitcoin and so I think you have a Confluence of factors that put a base in there uh know and we were discussing as well uh that the world is becoming more and more accepting of of this asset class A Frontier asset class where you know tether holds more treasuries than Germany now so you have a a whole digital Sovereign economy so so to speak right or rather the size of a of of a sovereign and and and these guys are to them Bitcoin is a Cornerstone store of value so you know you have a Confluence of of of factors here you of course still have a lot of Supply you know from Miners and you know Sovereign miners that we've been seeing in the news uh but I think I think fundamentally you know as uh Bitcoin becomes more and more you have Larry f going on CNBC saying these things as well um you know the the the the trajectory looks higher to me okay well give me a number we're not going to let you out of this one give us a number one year from now we're back here next year well I mean shortterm volatility and I'm not sure where where it ends the year but next year yeah next year uh somewhere in the middle maybe 100K Target is very reasonable okay Richard yeah I think yeah the the the key driver we see across asset classes at the moment is the one darus mentioned which is I think the stronger kind of macro thr at the mo at the moment and one that you can rely on CU I think it's unlikely to change is profil gate spending at The Sovereign level and you know when you look across asset markets at the moment you see a lot of oddities you see tech stocks trading at relative premiums to yields that we've never seen before well maybe maybe those yields aren't as strong as they've been before right cuz the government's um the government spending habits make the debt you know less attractive as an investment and inflation rates and all those sorts of things so we think the um you know the easiest thing to predict looking forward over the next two to three years is governments aren't going to change their behavior which means that investors are going to look for assets that are further away from government government influence and control um and there's no asset with better liquidity scale and size and further away than governments than Bitcoin so we think that's a nice macro trend for Bitcoin it helps the rest of the space as well but we think things have lined up pretty well I think the other thing to point that bitcoin's been pretty strong but it's actually done a pretty good job itself right we've had Silicon Valley Bank if you look back over the last two years you had the sil Silicon Valley Bank crisis where Bitcoin rallied which further entrenched The View that it's a sort of out of out of system asset of protection and you know that becomes reality when it starts to happen more and more you've seen you know um you've seen ordinals and those sorts of things start to emerge to show that there is potential to increase the fee pool and reduce security risk problem which some people have been concerned about probably a little down the rabbit hole to the broader Market but you've started to seeing a less risky future for Bitcoin and then you've seen a whole lot of new investors start to pick it up through the ETF so it's a pretty nice perfect storm for Bitcoin which justifies its sort of performance and I don't think it stops anytime soon so I think six figure Bitcoin next year looks pretty much inevitable to me okay okay Alex you're six figure Bitcoin guy also uh well next year I think is uh let's say 120 if Trump wins uh if Trump loses 80 85 somewhere on there what about you I'm at uh I'm above all you guys I'm thinking you know 150ish you know this time next year very but this is not it's not about me today it's about you guys um you mentioned the election Alex Richard you have a view does it matter uh whether it's Trump or camla yeah I think it does matter and I think if for the short it does I think if you look at sort of the macro factors we were talking about I think the reality is if Trump's s jumped 15% while we were sitting here that would had a much bigger influence on the market than anything the fed's done in the last 24 hours so um rightly or wrongly crypto's kind of tied to his Destiny for the yeah I was thinking more about you know the impact on regulation and other things do you you think it matters one way or the other no because I think if if you look at a sort of a longer term view regulation's been trended in the right Direction now for some time um you know even things like the ETF coming to the market are sort of a a show that the you know remember before that was approved the day before that was approved you know the consensus in the market would have been close to a scorched earth type view of crypto in the US and you know we've come around to as Dar said to having Larry Larry FR think talk Talking up you know Bitcoin and cryptos attributes so I think we've done the 180 there already now when it comes to actual legislation on paper you when that comes who knows and how it follows but I think that you the Market's kind of moved ahead of that and and can see it Tred in the right direction I don't see any reason for that to change you you'd agree Darius that it doesn't really matter whether it's cam or Trump for regulatory yeah I think in the long run it doesn't matter um like Alex said there could be some immediate price impact in the long run I don't think it matters be because guys like Larry are you know have done a 180 um and I think this trend of Americanization increases right uh where where America becomes a Cornerstone for uh uh um Bitcoin specifically as an asset the ETF actually was a was not such a straightforward uh bullish uh you know uh event as you can see how it what it did for ether sort of had an inverse inverse effect right the you get you get tested to the American investor and it showed that the American investor doesn't care much doesn't care about ether as much as they do Bitcoin so so this ETF effect was very specifically strong for Bitcoin I think that continues um and more specifically for us you know as as derivative Traders we're interested in how that translates into a whole Suite of whole Suite of products uh you know where where it joins the join there's a whole Playbook here for emerging Mar Market asset assets right you know it goes options fixed income uh Exotics you know the the the banks and the raas start to distribute these product products I think you start to see the American public become very used to the asset class um so you have a very strong adoption on American onshore and that Tri go to the rest of the world as well well let me ask you then a followup question because you're talking about the Americanization of of Bitcoin but all of a sudden we have this uh tremendous phenomena of tether and stable coins and clearly um you know this is the financial use case I mean as we've said before this is the the simple the simple uh use case ends up being the best but you know that's a non us dominated area at the moment would you want to talk a little bit about tether and you know how you see that playing out yeah absolutely so so I I've seen I see this two extremes right where where you have very strong Americanization and institutionalization of Bitcoin uh as a as as the the the the Cornerstone of the digital asset class rest of the world you have tether anchoring uh the stable coin economy so to speak right uh and I think the the future is a stable coin one and what do I mean by that that you know there's tether the Big Brother the biggest one but every Community has its own stable coin so if you if you saw this year with the launch of etina right uh a more defi native stable coin it got up to almost $4 billion in three months the fastest growing stable coin in history right um and you know because it had a simple strategy that you know uh had had ether yield and U basis yield on it and that that I think has is signs is a sign or a a a precedent of what is to come every stable every Community having its own stable coin every stable coin having its own unique functions um and then this becomes the way that that that the world adopts you know they regulated stable coins unregulated stable coins high yield stable coins uh it becomes almost an alternative to Swift uh not just for Asia for let M for the rest of the world right uh it becomes an alternative to Swift and I think that's where the opportunity is because you have a stable coin economy that is bigger than countries and this economy needs a capital Market structure uh it needs instruments it needs uh you know the whole gut and then that's where that's where the opportunity for for Guys Like Us come in to be the bridge and and provide Provide Capital Market structure and and and products for this new stable coin economy I think uh that's where a lot of the opportunities are going to lie in the future so Richard I I know your portfolio must be filled with all sorts of different stable coins talk talk to us a little bit about where you see that going well I think you know you started talking about the Americanization of Bitcoin and then stable coins in Asia but they're all US dollar stable coins right so um whilst it's you know while it's it's a different use case it's still being led by the US dollar and you know we've always had this there's always been this sort of tension between the sort of unregulated US dollar market with opening up a whole bunch of global buyers of US dollars that have never eared US Dollars before and you know say what you all about the American government and monetary policy and fiscal policies it it appears when people in most Emerging Markets have access to US dollars they want to grab them and you know that's the trend that's driven a lot of the growth in US Dollars you're getting whole you know whole communities or whole populations of people that have no access to American US dollar banking or have no prospects of Ever Getting US dollar banking I mean it's hard enough in a market like mine Australia to get US dollar banking in terms of the the hurdles and the size of capital required L Al Aline in emerging markets and you've got stable coins coming up yeah but why don't we have you know Euro stable coins or Yen stable coins don't you think that is in our future I mean it's remarkable to me it's just been but I think but I but but I think if you look at traditional we go a little down a rabbit hole here but if you look at traditional currencies the the you know the key driver for the fact that we have a lot of currencies is around government controls and regulations and when you launch currencies into the world without that encumbrance and you allow people to choose it's pretty clear they want one currency and they've chosen the US dollar and you know it makes a bunch of sense you know have liquidity and scale in one currency you know right and you know say what you will about the American government it's probably more sensibly managed than most others from a monetary policy perspective and so the people choose and yeah I think we'd probably see the same at a geopolitical level as well if the government's kind of said open currency markets choose our local Sovereign currency see all the US dollar that probably say the same thing but they're not going to do that Alex uh it's uh well I'm from Argentina and uh it's uh the first thing about Argentina and Bitcoin is that uh the bitcoiners think and try to actually sell Bitcoin to Argentina and they think that Bitcoin is going to solve the problem of of argentine's and Venezuelans and every country with high inflation and and the actual reality is that um they just won dollars period and you go to Africa they just $ dollars and uh here in the Far East trade international trade is with dollars and if you have money under the under the mattress is on dollars and uh and the way I think about t is tar is like uh it's basically uh euro dollar deposits basically unregulated offshore uh us deposits in um offshore um basically Euro dollars were a very large large markets they still exist very large very liquid not as big as they used to uh dominated Global markets in the '90s and the early 2000s and uh Tor is pretty much the same but democra size like everybody has access to Tor and and the other and the final thing on T that I think we we're missing and and I'd like to see somebody build on this is forward curves on teder to to basically incorporate teder as as another um source of uh bench rates benchmarks in in global markets yeah that's interesting yeah I agree that would be interesting um a lot of interesting things going on in the last sort of 6 to 12 months I don't know Darius I'm always like you know so shocked at how new areas just pop up out of nowhere the Bitcoin ecosystem is one you know a year ago was a very different place you know we've got l2s now lots of different activity you have any thoughts about that and if not like are there certain new areas that you're looking at that you're getting excited about no I think uh I mean not just a Bitcoin ecosystem in terms of uh you know yield on bitcoin the whole I think staking as a uh Native element of the space becomes you know part of uh the new Capital Market right this is the one piece staking and you know validated yields is it's it's the one piece of uh of this digital asset capital Market that will always be native to crypto guys right so even you know I mean if you talk about options fixed income with Bitcoin underlying you know it's it's it's similar to traditional Finance products but uh staking staking derivatives and you know the all the products that come from that will always be something native and I think that's something interesting to see you know uh when the bank start to offer staking products staking derivatives um you know it's a it's almost like a native Native yield curve right but the the most interesting thing I think that will repower the space so to speak is uh you know credit and rates right um that was the problem that that was really the C of the problem in the last two three years right poor poor credit management so what what I'm looking forward to is is a proper interest rate Market in crypto you know you start to see products like the interest rate swaps you know a proper rate curve um for that I think the banks need to be involved and I think they are starting to get involved you know uh uh to have prop credit processes and a proper rates Market in crypto so what I what what I what I really like to see is this this convergence of the Two Worlds right uh franer asset class you know uh you know you have you have a whole dollar rates a a whole alternative dollar economy and then you start to see the convergence of these pieces and things start to get really scalable um not sure what the path is going to look like to get there uh but you know uh piece by piece uh you know I as a bank start to get involved financial institutions start to get involved native guys like us start to dip up dip dip one foot into the traditional world as well and start to pull things together I think it's a very interesting future I think from a um sort of a road map perspective you know when we started the firm thinking about you know as a as a um you know disruptive technology how would this roll out it's following that trajectory exactly as we expected at this point and we're getting to the exciting part so you know if you look at most Technologies and nent technologies that are disruptive you know the first focus is building the capacity and the infrastructure you know in ours we you know say block space was that so let's let's build the underlying capacity to actually handle what we're going to build going forward and then let's work around and find the actual use cases you know the initial use cases that have that real product Market fit you know the things like the arvas and the Unis swaps that have now been around for a while and scaling and getting a whole bunch of sort of use different users and starting to generate real sorts of revenues and those sorts of things and we now feel we're in that stage which is you know a typical stage of tech where you're in that distribution stage how do we repackage those products and how do we distribute those products to the global Mass market and we're starting to see that now as we start to see products like RV and Unis swap become this underlying processes and infrastructure type applications and telegram Bots and phone apps and those sorts of things starting to distribute those products cany guys with they going to get that but I don't think the tradire guys need to get that like the tradire guys aring get it but they're not using Bots right so it's the 900 million or 300 million Emerging Market uses of telegram going be left behind the trfi guys we're just going to leave them all behind all the old we going to sh a teeth with them Dan or not Alex what do you you involved yeah it's um so you ask about basically Bitcoin Layer Two ecosystem right also what's what are you most excited about over the next sort of 6 to 12 months aside from the Bitcoin price going the the Bitcoin it goes system um excited about that excited about um um well shortterm telegram games the telegram ecosystem I think it has uh a lot of potential uh but back on on on the Bitcoin I think it's interesting that um uh the number is 10 billion market cap of Bitcoin ecosystem tokens is 10 billion which is about 05% of market cap total market cap of crypto so if if you think as I think that there is a lot of things to build on top of Bitcoin this is one of the places we want to be out right and what about our performance or you know we have eers Bitcoin or Solana versus Bitcoin people always you know if you're a macro guy they always want to ask you about relative performance so I Darius s let me add something to the previous question before I answer this one so so I mean Richard mentioned that you know we all came in here thinking you know that it's going to be a tech tech disruption right but actually I think the disruption the next 6 to 12 months is going to be a lot more fundamental and simple um a very simple methodological disruption meaning that you know right now you have the tradire guys trading like CME trades uh 12 hours a day 5 days a week uh you know um um t plus two settlement right whereas the crypto way of trading is 24/7 live margin instant settlement Auto Liquidation so I think the the the the disruption is going to be much simpler it's going to be uh you know Sam tried to bring it the whole world to tr on FDX I think it's the other way around you know it's more about what what the crypto World offers the rest of the world and we start to see traditional assets uh stocks Commodities bonds trade the way that crypto does right so where you know next 12 months do we start to see the crypto will offer this methodology to to the rest of the world I think that disruption while subtle actually makes so how is that going to work so you have you maybe you have you know you start to see exchanges start to adopt this this methodology I think ASX tried to do this at some point as well but you know it was more of a political issue but as these start as these guys start to uh adopt this methodology you start to see liquidity change um I think it it will come maybe not in the next 12 months but you know at some point um but to answer your question on on you know Bitcoin dominance I I I think uh you know there will be ETFs on everything uh at some point but like I said every ETF is a test of what investor appetite is and you know the question will be which is the next one that captures investor attention uh the same way that Bitcoin did with the ETF okay so no specific view on one being undervalued versus the other Richard yeah I'll give it absolutely I think uh I think applications are grossly undervalued versus protocols so I think the space has found a pretty good propensity to generate more block space as required relatively quickly and we've seen I think kind of ethereum is a little bit of a look into the future around other ecosystems you've seen the you know the prol proliferation of layer 2os layer 3es I think there's even some layer fours so people have been able to build block space out super fast and um the reality is they haven't been able to build lending markets outside of RV anywhere near this speed or they haven't been able to build dexas of the scale of uni swap like that as well so yet those applications are trading that 90% discounts to the leading protocol layer ones and their fees are kind of similar so it kind of looks to me at the moment the application layer is generating about the same money uh it's proving over the last four or five years that it's potentially more defensible than block space it's probably absolutely is yet it's trading at sort of 5 to 10% of the value of those protocols to me that seems wrong so and we're in that sort of period of the that period of the development the tech I talked about where you're starting to see that that distribution happen we're moving from that sandbox of sort of crypto natives with a with a you know with a ledger using metamask as as good as that is to the mass user that's just using a telegram b or whatever else it is and that's when you start to see those users come to those those apps and I think they're going to take over the protocols and we out perform them over the next three years Alex uh yeah I I don't trade eth BTC so uh um not not really uh putting much emphasis on the ratio but when it comes to e uh metrics are pretty bad uh they gone back in time many years uh but sentiment I'd say is even worse what what eth needs is uh is a catalyst is a catalyst so I think that that's the election that's Trump winning uh for me is uh the way I see it is if an election night Trump is coming ahead somewhere between 11:00 p.m. eastern time 2: a.m. eastern time time you start getting a good sense of who's going to win based on on on how um the the counts are coming on the on the East Coast you if you trade you basically Max long e um and in the meantime fundamentals and it's overvalued undervalued I I don't really know yeah I I see that question more from a vol lens actually meaning that uh undervalued overvalued not sure but the V spread would probably increase because we see liquidity draining out of alt and E into Bitcoin uh so for example Bitcoin versus e the the evve spread used to be quite uh consistent it's getting a little more lot more volatile and I think it widens so uh lower Bitcoin V higher e v higher altcoin V so it could swing both ways it could uh you know it becomes higher beta effectively yeah but you know your generally positive view on the Bitcoin if we do get up to 100 plus are you expecting the you know the alt uh season that everyone's talking about to come and I don't know if that's an outdated term uh five years outdated now I I it seems a little off but I don't know that people know I think the Market's matured a little bit down in terms of there's much more um idos syncratic moves right like past all seasons you know if you owned an underperformer you probably still got Conor Market beater and did okay and if you own the out performers you kind of you know made 10x or whatever right but it feels like the market and you'd expect this as it gets more mature as we got through sort of more SOC wait a second hold on a second more mature but now we've got I heard you know 10,000 meme coins per day are being produced so uh uh you know in a period where Bitcoin is doing well you could imagine some of the real rocket fuel uh meme coins and some of the crazy stuff really go crazy is that or is that going to die away what do you what do you guys well I don't think that dies away at all I mean it feels like a pretty like they all go through Cycles like everything else but you know it's it's a sign of where we're at when you're moving into a digital economy people want to move fast they want attention type assets and that's where we're at but I think if you look at the market par we've even seen it over the last 18 months there's been much more dispersion between the old coins right so so I think the concept of a alt season where whatever you own goes up I don't think we'll see that again I think I think we can particularly see a lot of altcoins materially outperformed but it's going to be for specific reasons it's not just going to be for for for you know generalized liquidity flows it's going to be because they've created something great they've attracted a whole bunch of users or they've done something that actually demands their price to go up so the the Space is really growing up then in your view well it's still got a fair way to go it's still got a little way to go but I think I think looking at the market the last 18 months it's hard not to draw that conclusion because it's been real different performance between you know the people that have been crazy yet people are still sober I think on a on a break of 100 all the way to 150 it's going to a little crazy again maybe but I don't think you can plan a portfolio on that right so we try to and I I love your your uh a uh bet I do agree with you I think that's a that's tremendous uh outperformance in the apps versus the protocols but what about risks talk to me about like what are you what's the what are you concerned about we don't have that much time left so maybe just Darius yeah just a quick one the the risk landscape is getting better right I mean post FDX now you have tried every custodian has Tri party Solutions um Regulators are asking crypto players you know how how they measure VAR and how they do margining systems we're getting like you said we're getting more grown up um so I think that landscape lends itself to more institutional investment but what do you worry about what I I mean um very good question you can say nothing no I mean look the credit space is coming back you know we can St to see more lenders borrowers come back in again the credit credit the credit space is always going to be a worry so you know know that that's there always one space we will go in with both eyes open and with a lot of trepidation okay you must have some worries M wor Michael sailor gets over LED I um I mean people who' have been around markets before can see those sorts of events can gather right and that's the sort of thing that none of us can control but you know we've kind of seen this story before Alex uh worried about three things the the first one is uh uh and nothing against about politics is about uh um prices and the regulatory environment I'm worried about Democrats winning and uh the current regulatory environment continuing for another four years number one number two is I'm worried about being wrong about recession and uh we going into very severe recession next year uh that worries me and uh the last one actually this one sometimes keeps up keeps me up at night when I'm looking at at Bitcoin and my book is what if Bitcoin decorrelates from the S&P which is ironic because for a lot of people that's what they want is they want an uncorrelated asset to bring it to their portfolios to basically increase uh returns subject to minimizing volatility it's good for portfolios my concern is that Bitcoin Bitcoin starts doing its own thing entirely and uh and AD option doesn't go as fast and at the end is like Bitcoin eventually is digital gold and I'm not bullish gold at all uh okay well we we we don't have time now to talk about gold but guys I really thank uh the three of you for coming out and sharing your views with everybody and thanks everybody for listening thank you thanks time thank you