The Future of Web3: Governance, Security and Compliance - TOKEN2049 Singapore 2022

morning everyone what a journey to be here no Pi intended it's difficult to get from my hotel to this place I have to like go through different passes and it's also difficult to be a old game OG in the crypto Market I discovered Bitcoin fairly early in 2011. and I have seen apps and dance in the market for the past a little bit over one decade you're surprised me also uh so today I'm gonna talk about uh we're gonna look ahead to see the next Peak and in the history personally I have seen three Pick Three Peaks the first one is in 2014 second 2014 to 2017 and the previous Peak is at the end of 2021 and I don't know whether it's a coincident or what every Peak happened right after a couple of months after the halving of Bitcoin and every Peak ends at the end of that year so the the first Peak is end of 2017 in December second Pier also December the last Peak is in November so if this pattern will repeat we can predict the next Peak will probably be around the end of 2025 which is three years away so let's uh go through those Cycles one by one very briefly and the first cycle is I call it pre-2014. uh at that I run that period it mostly all of the tokens are mostly uh payment tokens or store of value tokens and the iconic projects are Bitcoin Litecoin and ripple and then during the next cycle after the burst of the first bubble uh we saw a boom of utility Network tokens I call it utility Network token or you can understand it as a platform to run smart contract which is ethereum Neil Tron and many D5 or other decentralized applications built on those platforms and then the current or the previous Circle which during which Circle we saw the boom of D5 an ft um some new centralized exchange like binance actually binance is quite new it is the biggest uh the Chinese band of crypto benefit benefited binance uh predominantly and during the third circle we saw different projects and this is um looking into the rear mirror in a retro retrospective way but what if we want to have a higher level of all those projects all those crypto Market I tried to group all of them into four different categories or four tracks and every single projects can fall into can fit into those four baskets and they are infrastructure liquidity or Finance Webster application and metaverse let's look at them one by so the first so the first uh and also the biggest uh this is a market dominance of all those four tracks we can find we can see that infrastructure consists of the biggest portion 51 or around half percent of all the crypto market and then liquidity 44 and web3 and metaverse and uh astonishingly Webster application and metaverse is relatively small or very small comparing to infrastructure and liquidity and don't don't understand it wrong it's not just all the tokens combined together it includes companies Market values so let's go into those four tracks one by one the first one is infrastructure and it consists of different parts the biggest part half of it is store of value Network mostly it's a Bitcoin Dogecoin Litecoin and other other tokens and then is and the second biggest part is utility Network 30 38 and the the major part is ethereum and then Finance to finance a chance Ripple Solana and other blockchains and we also have interability interoperability protocols scalability Solutions privacy preserving blockchains oracles computational blockchains and Mining and staking and also tooling some tooling so the total combined market cap is around is around 760 billion US Dollars which is pretty big here comes some prediction on the infrastructure track for the for the next Peak prediction one store of value Network plus utility Network the total market cap will be on par with gold Gold's market cap currently the gold market cap is around 10 trillion US dollars um if this will be true then the store of value market a network or Bitcoin will be around 4.5 or 5 or 5 trillion US Dollars and the combined value market cap of utility network will also be around 5 trillion US dollars that will put ethereum a market cap to around 4 trillion US Dollars you can calculate how many times how many multiples uh Bitcoin and Eastern ethereum will need to grow during the next cycle and next prediction prediction two ethereum will face its Oedipus complex what does it mean it means layer 2 the song and layer one the father will have a rivalry that will compete with each other if there is a uh there are a dominant layer 1 project on top of this room um these projects will compete with ethereum layer 1. and these are the future possible uh competitions oops and prediction number three we will witness the rise of complete ecosystem around the many of the zero knowledge proof projects we will see upstreaming mining computation Network and we will also see the downstream application ecosystem around dkp so zkp will be will be a very attractive direction for investors to to invest your money resources into and prediction number four decentralized Cloud will be finally viable and many decentralized applications will live on it it will be more difficult for government for Regulators to Simply ban a website to ban a dapps because future debts were built completely on a decentralized cloud using decentralized naming system you don't need domain names you don't need AWS or other Cloud servers to run your apps it will be completely decentralized okay if all the prediction fulfilled the future infrastructure track will be something like this we will see a stored value network worth of 5 trillion utility Network 5 trillion and those are growth of different subtracts and next is liquidity track uh the liquidity track today is something like this um it consists of majorly two parts the biggest part or 90 of the part is centralized finance and the smaller part only seven percent is decentralized finance and also exchange centralized exchanges is the biggest part in the in the central centralized Finance section finance coinbase and FTX and plus other smaller exchanges they have a combined market value of 300 over 300 billion US dollars okay let's do some prediction on this infrastructure on this liquidity track prediction five stablecoin Supply will hike to 2 trillion the current stablecoin Supply is uh is around to a 100 150 billion US dollars but I predict for the next Peak it will rise it will grow 10 times to become around 2 trillion US dollars because in the past um historical data show that stablecoin or usdt versus Bitcoin market cap is around is between three percent to 20 percent if this percentage preserves in the future all the stable coins combined together will be around 2 trillion US dollars that means a lot of new money from conventional Market will go into crypto Market and then prediction six kyc ml CTF CFT will be applied to those Fiat backed stablecoin projects under the pressure from Regulators it is difficult to imagine that if you send um let's say 10 000 US dollars to another individual's bank account and your Banker will call you to ask you what what is the purpose of this transaction at the meantime when you send 1 million usdc or other stable coins to another address and nothing will happen and you can freely do that freely do that and it's uh let's say in the case of usdc many us-based banks will complained to U.

S Regulators why treat them differently usdc is USC backed and USC in the banks are strictly uh screwed are screwed are are strictly regulated so I predict kyc mL of every address every holder of those fear-backed stable coins will be applied and consequently my prediction number seven day-to-day payment by average average Joe will constitute a substantial proportion of all transactions because when stable coins are strictly regulated it will be very equivalent to your balance in your bank and on-ramp off-ramp will be very smooth and easy So eventually average to ordinary people will use a stable coin will use a blockchain as a payment Network because it's more efficient it's more convenient so at the at the uh at next Peak the Fiat back stable coin will be around 2 trillion and uh sequentially um we will see a Revival of uh decentralized stable coins okay this is what the liquidity tracker will be look like at the next Peak so C5 will probably grow 10 times and D5 will grow 25 times it doesn't necessarily mean that the value of a market cap of a certain exchange will grew 10 times it means um the existing projects were grew many times and also there will be new projects emerging because Webster applications and metaverse are relatively comparatively smaller I will combine them together so this is the current market dominance web3 application I divided them into three groups decentralized identity social and also Tao and each part is somewhere between 2 billion to 4.5 billion and then the metaverse metaverse is is uh is comprised of two parts an FDR related and gaming related and each of them are around 29 billion US dollars I think the gaming is probably is not a is not a best word to describe metaverse because gaming is for fun but um joining participating in metaverse not necessarily for fun the biggest difference between metaverse and the game is you join metaverse to to join a social life social life our social lives are not necessarily fun you can produce there you can work there there is a whole economic system in metaverse but in gaming you are mostly people are there for fun here comes my last two predictions prediction eight a daily active user of the biggest Vestry application will reach 10 million today there are only 5 million addresses that ever owned a nft but at the next Peak I think one biggest Webster applications will have more than 10 million Dau users and prediction number nine censorship resistance will still be the drive of Webster application and pause the screen will still unfortunately be the journaling of metaverse games these two things will not go away and this if all the predictions and night predictions got fulfilled the infrastructure track will be around 19 trillion dollars in total that's 23 multiple times and liquidity will be 6 trillion metaverse 500 billion and web web strip application 100 billion uh last but not least um this are the projects I'm I've been personally involved with uh I will go through them very quickly by tracks so in for infrastructure track I'm the founder of new new is the open network a smart contract platform for smart economy and also I'm involved with poly Network party network is a interoperability protocol bridging 40 plus block blockchains including Neo ethereum and many other blockchains and I've also worked in the DSP is a is not a final name it's called decentralized storage protocol it's it will be a layer 2 for ethereum but serves as a decentralized cloud so a certain depth can build on top of DSP and for the liquidity track um I'm the founder of onchan cassudin a regulated crypto custody based in Singapore and also inst a on-ramp off-ramp solution for individual and Merchants Alpha One a crypto Asset Management with currently with around 100 million US Dollars AUM and all those projects are open to talents and also major investors uh and for the webstery track uh there are few projects Neil Burger a voting and governance project for new you can also earn gas if you do a new burger and also grain share a project that decentralized the dial to manage all the grants on top of new also new name name service which is equivalent to its name for metaverse there is one platform called Mega OSS which is a fundraising and also launch pad and Marketplace for an FTR new and if you are interested in those projects uh please contact us contact us my Twitter and my email thank you very much