Global Macro Uncertainty: The Crypto Narrative - TOKEN2049 Singapore 2022

as you can see it's a difficult traffic out there so hopefully we'll have a fourth panelist joining us here momentarily um but I you know I don't think there's a more uh timely topic than the interplay between crypto and macro uh clearly we're coming off of a week where we're seeing uh elevated uh currency and fixing income volatility uh vix reaching recent highs we've got the dollar appreciating versus the master currencies again multi-decade highs the pound depreciating we have the boj intervening to strengthen the yin so clearly there's a lot going on in the macro world and of course we're all here focused on crypto so really the discussion today we want to talk a little bit about the interplay between the two I'm joined with a a very uh talented group of speakers so I'll give them just a moment to introduce themselves Darius you want to start sure thank you my name is Darius I'm the founder of qcp capital we are a full Suite crypto trading desk so we do anything from spot um rates options we also do quite a bit of uh Venture MP Investments right uh I'll I'll continue I'll give you a second to catch your breath um Jody Alexander I'm the chief exec Chief investment officer of Selena Capital uh we're trading firm we do Market making and we also do Venture as well cool um hey everyone uh good morning I'm sorry for a bit of a delay so I'm here aptikar I'm a portfolio manager at Ledger Prime um I primarily focus on liquid and discretionary trading and I also focus on Venture a bit as well and generally speaking Ledger Prime does as a quantitative investment firm so we also do Market making and then we also do OTC options similar to Darius from qcp awesome so in in 2017 when I first started running capital for outside investors I was pitching a lot of Institutions I was pitching them on you know what I thought was the value proposition for then largely Bitcoin clearly the universe has expanded a lot um and we talked a lot about other things of you know censorship and inflation and a lot of things that clearly at least from a U.S Centric point of view weren't at the Forefront and then that way fast forward five six years and we have you know single double digit inflation across several countries we've seen Financial censorship um in both you know developed in Emerging Markets most recently tornado Cash There's you know Canadian truckers protesting covet and being censored so there's a lot of different things that you would think um would be driving kind of a positive Tailwind for crypto and I think what's on the the mind of a lot of people is why is you know you know crypto price maybe not reflective of that despite you know the bigger backdrop so maybe majority of you've had some thoughts on kind of what's driving crypto prices now as it relates to what otherwise seems like a pretty strong macro narrative yeah absolutely I mean everything has been trading with a correlation of one across the risk assets whether it's equities whether it's cryptos all of them and it is you know a lot of us uh in crypto try to Bunch everything together but there are like different use cases and I think one of the things that's changed since the last cycle is the use of stable coins to start to take advantage of you know being able to transfer money abroad um being able to have access to something apart from the local currency so people will just expand the euro dollar system by buying usdc buying usdt and that's a way for somebody like in a developing country to get access to an inflation hedge so instead of them using Bitcoin or you know ethereum or something else they're using stable coins so the narrative has to kind of shift and we have to determine like what exactly are the different use cases that we're looking at obviously right now with the currency crises across the world where the dollar I don't know how many of you believe the dollar milkshake Theory or familiar with it obviously that theory is potentially playing out where there seems to be like a lack of dollars um across the world right now and potentially stable coins are taking a little bit of a fire um and instead of people trading Bitcoin they're trading the other part of the pair so it's Bitcoin slash usdc So when you say why is the price going down partly because USD is becoming more popular yeah and we'll talk a little bit more about some of the drivers of decoupling as we get into the the panel I guess from like a flow perspective I know you guys both do some Market making um in terms of of your own shops or allocators that you work with the counterparties you work with what are you guys seeing from a flow perspective and how are people in the market positioning themselves again with this broader macro backdrop okay maybe from uh bigger picture perspective if you look at all assets this year year to date uh everything is down except US dollars natural gas and some pockets of real estate maybe the rule sorry maybe the ruble yeah um so actually if you look at it um there has been no clear inflation hedge everything is down you know so uh not not fair to say that you know Bitcoin is a I mean it was meant to be an inflation hedge but this is a an environment where because of high inflation um there is policy uncertainty and every asset is reacting to that right reacting to the potential drain of liquidity uh so the strange situation is that actually even though the market is pricing in a big drain of liquidity there is a lot of dollar liquidity still so you know especially in crypto because uh you know a lot of the as crypto assets like Bitcoin either you know were sold down to the sold out into dollars and you have a situation where crypto lending deposit rates are lower than treasury treasury yields right so you have a situation where the market is pricing in a lot of policy uncertainty everything is being slowed down and uh you know Bitcoin either crypto is not spared in this in this respect and then at the same time you have a lot of liquidity so um what we are seeing on the Flow side is while the vix is pricing in highs and last night it hit 34. uh crypto Vols have actually been coming down right so pricing in sideways or you know pricing the liquidity flush so we have a bit of dislocations in the market uh could be opportunities there um but you know interesting to see how it goes yeah it's going to comment also on skew in general so uh short dated SKU so this is um you know basically the Delta between a call and a put for us options guys um it's been relatively High historically for for Ethan Bitcoin this summer and that also shows a lot of positioning in my opinion um and then also funding rates generally for um kind of more exotic products uh have been a little bit more expensive but I think I wanted to touch on what Darius mentioned which was you know even the most safe vanilla investment which is U.S government bonds have been down 20 something percent this year so this is one of the first times in history you see both equities which are deemed risk assets and then also you know very safe government bonds trading well in you know negative uh throughout the year so you know it's really hard for any asset class let alone you know crypto which is deemed like maybe furthest out on the risk curve to you know catch any sort of bid in this kind of chaotic Market um and then there's also the fact that I think markets are always forward-looking um it's not random that when inflation became a very uh mainstream topic of conversation that you know Bitcoin and ether prices peaked um but it was the expectation that inflation would happen that people went for these risk assets and this is the same thing for Amazon or twilio or whatever other public equities exist out there right yeah so that that um concept that assets are for you know for looking which I totally buy into uh markets being efficient I'm not sure that I buy into but um that's clearly a a leading thesis I think one thing you hear a lot is is that crypto is the last efficient market and I think what people mean by that is that it's not as subject to manipulation at least in a structural way is a lot of traditional markets and again that's also debatable itself but the fact that it trades on regulated unregulated exchanges it's generally accessible to everyone that's actually structurally very different than Equity markets definitely different than the treasury market and so do you do you see any evidence of crypto actually leading you know a potential policy change like right now we're on the back of you know fed funds rates I think expected to be 4.5 by the end of the year 4.

7 in the beginning of next year dollar appreciation this risk of breaking things is there any um and in the last week we've actually seen a bit of decoupling between crypto and in traditional markets um you know you mentioned the vix you mentioned again relative strength versus ndx all that's been quite strong I'm wondering is that the crypto expressing hey like the fed's gonna have to pull back or there's gonna be some other kind of policy shifts or is that more just a short-term anomaly that I'm buying into too much and being you know hopeful about no I I think that's a good question right and there's no easy answer to that one but you know when um so there are two parts of this so when when Russia invaded Ukraine right uh what we saw was an increased interest in so if you look at all the uh D5 participation we saw increased interest from the Russians and the Chinese for obvious reasons right uh that crypto is still the only non-sovereign Capital Market um but at the same time so so to answer your question you know there is this potential that as a non-sovereign capital Market it benefits in a multi-polar world uh it benefits in a world that uh you know where where U.S economic hegemony is is being decayed um but at the same time it is a it is increasingly becoming a more speculative asset for both institutionals and Retail and for that reason it gets very sensitive to policy changes as well so you have these two forces that they're playing at each other uh remains to be seen which which wins out in the end but correlations have been high I think the the decoupling has only been like a two days so I don't think it's that significant I know I I expect correlations to remain high and increasingly so because at least for the next year because uh you know um crypto has become one of the macro risk assets maybe a higher beta sometimes lower beta depending on which but you know I I expect it to increasingly become at macro is asset so we haven't seen the uh you know we saw signs of this decoupling in terms of the interest uh but we haven't seen evidence of that yet in the price yeah yeah I think if you look back um at March 2020 so this is the period when we had the covet crash um you know when no amount of monetary policy at the time could really reverse course for for Equity markets but there's an interesting kind of lag between uh crypto markets and Equity markets at the time so crypto actually bottomed about 10 or 15 days before Equity markets bottomed um and you could make a similar argument that maybe it's not 10 or 15 days this time but maybe a couple of months um mostly because crypto doesn't have any backstopping capability now there's some exchanges that are willing to backstop a lot of the Carnage that exists but um especially back in March 2020 there was no backstopping mechanism it when you liquidate you liquidate on market and you market sell the order so there's no means for there to be a perfect match and there's no delay in terms of margin calls so that leads to a lot of Carnage very quickly and this is why you've seen crypto seem somewhat resilient uh in the face of you know Equity Market Carnage mostly because we've already had our period of time you know we've already had our uh you know most most of our liquidations went through and maybe a month and a half two months um you don't remove 40 billion dollars worth of excess uh without hurting the broader Market but there's not pockets of 40 billion dollars of vulnerabilities within crypto every single day right so you don't have Luna implosions every other day in crypto you know I hope so at least yeah I mean coming from traditional markets which are so much bigger than crypto I never imagined that crypto would be like a leading indicator but what I've seen over the last few years because of crypto being such a pure liquidity asset it does lead both on the way up and on the way down and I think it will bounce back first it's also crashed first we don't know exactly how long the difference between crypto and Equity markets is I think it's expanding I think crypto is a lot closer to um bottoming right now than Equity markets partly because of the deleveraging that's already happened um and I think crypto is really the source of like it's like liquidity sync as money will re-enter the system a lot of it will look for where is the most return gonna come from people look at risk return and they'll say you know here's all the asset classes if I'm actually optimistic if I think the markets are going to be doing well for the next few years where do I allocate and crypto has a very strong kind of potential for you know at this point having already had a very strong bull market I think people will look at the risk reward in a good liquidity environment as being very strong for crypto yeah so it's interesting you say that because I like I so clear live view cryptos being kind of out the risk curve but I also hate kind of like compartmentalizing is this like the most speculative asset which I feel kind of demeans some of the long-term utility and clearly we're on this you know evolution of of um you know maturation right like there's a lot of promise but we're still kind of developing all the use cases and Primitives what you know where do you think we are in that timeline what do you think needs to happen to see decoupling I mean part of it we're saying maybe we already already coupling a little bit and that's more of a liquidity discussion from a a like utility and adoption discussion what do we need to see you know to have a broader decoupling and maybe we can we can break this into Bitcoin as its own you know asset and then the rest of the space which clearly is also an oversimplification but I think the narratives driving them are different um yeah I'm not sure about decoupling per se but um I mean just from our end from the trading side what we've seen is that you know uh so I used to be an fx options Trader right and we've seen the same guys who are trading FX options a lot of them are now trading crypto I think Isaiah will agree with me so uh I'm not sure about the coupling but I think it's been very it's we're moving into an era where Bitcoin specifically and maybe ether and maybe some of the bigger layer ones are starting to be seen as um legitimate micro macro markets it's no longer a frontier or emerging thing right um I mean just a good example you know I think last month in August I think at least a third a third of The Ether option trading volume came from a single hedge fund right and these are Big established hedge funds coming into the space so we're starting to see that kind of liquidity Point uh it's time to see the kind of Interest Point um whether it decouples or not not sure but we will definitely see better infrastructure uh and and the way it is going to be traded in a more sophisticated manner right you're gonna have you're not gonna you're gonna right now you have I mean the credit markets have exploded you know that that's that's going to take some time to rebuild but the wall markets are being becoming more sophisticated um you know the the the curves are getting interesting and a lot more better price so I think we see this institutionalization happening not sure again not sure whether it becomes decoupling but uh it becomes an Institutional asset and then you know the whole crypto space uh sort of Trades around there so to speak yeah yeah I think the number one driver of any both Innovation and also Capital introduction will be regulation um and not regulation in the sense that we need to go ahead and ban crypto assets but rather people are unsure of what they're unsure about today uh which is a huge problem for any sort of Institutional Investor but also for any mainstream pockets of capital um if the only headlines that we see for crypto are Luna implosion and a certain hedge fund uh defrauding investors then that's a humongous problem so we need to change that narrative for one you know number one and then number two it's also working with Regulators very very closely and I hope the Mas in the room can you know hopefully uh work towards that goal of you know having a very robust very clear regulatory framework and I think that was you know what will get us to the maturation of the asset class because today it's still very much you know higher net worth retail that that has been around for a number of years and you're seeing the trickling in of the institutional asset class as Darius mentioned but it's not you're not getting BlackRock buying Bitcoin on the opening market right and hopefully that feature ends up happening actually on this point Sorry on this point I think I think that you know we've had a credit crisis in crypto right so my thought is that you know for the credit Market to be built up uh in a proper manner not the way that we had it before uh I'm thinking I'm not sure whether you guys are being happy to hear or views on this but I'm thinking that the banks actually need to be involved so to put the highest point on regulations right the banks need to be involved we need to have a proper overnight rate a proper interest rate curve uh for the credit Market to do to begin again because what we had before was poor foundations on the credit market and then guys being able to borrow 10 billion dollars without any credit rating um and then you know that imploded and then you have a huge leveraging in the space and right now you know the credit Market is broken so I'm not sure what you guys think about you know um how do we rebuild this credit market and and to Zachary's Point whether we need the banks to be involved whether we need the industry guys to be involved um I can answer that I I do have quite a different balance of um importance I think getting the credit back into crypto is not necessarily the key thing right now because credit is very good when you need to expand the supply you know of course like the moon boys want credit so you you know we can 10x leverage and like create these big bubbles but I think in terms of what's important is the narrative the crypto narrative so what we've had is a lot of questions around you know what is what is the benefit of D5 what is the benefit of like this technology and you know everybody here is obviously like interested in this technology that's why we're at these conferences but we have to kind of think about the broader adoption in the broader world people on the street they're not necessarily seeing what we're seeing and they have to like they have to kind of be brought in either without realizing it so there could be like a lifestyle app or like an FIFA you know world cup thing and they don't realize they're actually interacting with an nft or crypto they're just kind of doing it for fun so that's something that potentially can bring a lot of people in but I think what's really important is not just using this market for building you know they say bear markets are for building cool we have a lot of developers now there's a lot of hacker houses there's a lot of people building we have 800 dexes we have like 50 centralized exchanges we have all these stuff that people are building how about like bear Market is for like philosophy let's come up with like you know what are we actually using this technology for where does it fit in and let's kind of collectively use like the Mind space for coming up with that and we see even like the really you know I'll call out like even like the one of the best fonts in the space Paradigm like you know these guys are uh you know very well regarded and I regard them very highly as well but even they will kind of use cop-outs like you know crypto is a great alternative currency it's such a broad thing like what does crypto mean do you mean Luna classic like what exactly is currency that you're talking about because most of these things are speculative assets and nobody's really doing the hard work of you know okay we have 800 cryptos which ones are fitting different use cases we can just say that it's great alternative currency but somebody has to kind of give a clear picture especially to the outside world because we talk about gaming gamers right now if you look at the reaction to web3 type of games it's very negative from the web 2 side maybe it's just resistance maybe it'll change but I think the narrative has to kind of shape and form the reality of the broader world yeah now it's so we touched on a lot of topics across this those three answers um I I do think at least to date there's a lot of cryptos like a solution looking for a problem at least in some respects if you if you're in the weeds because you're just building a bunch of different you know a bunch of different dexes a bunch of different lending protocols which I think are useful Primitives that we'll get adoption in the future but that's it seems to be kind of part part of what is but another thing we touched on so there's there's kind of banking buy-in and I think that's important from just not having a a combative relationship with regulators and with the state and so that's helpful for adoption I think what you mentioned having use cases that I think frankly r d Phi or aren't alternative money are a good track for getting adoption so I I don't think there's going to be a congressional testimony around you know in-game assets and nftes at least I don't expect that not to the same degree that we see with you know dollar back stable coins and so that's kind of a trojan horse for you know adoption in in the future um so yeah a lot of different spectrum of of use cases there um I think maybe one thing we should we should talk about because you talked about you know senior age and what is money I think one use case that we kind of all take for granted but is now becoming more relevant again is is stable coins in general um again it seems kind of boring if you're in crypto because we've been talking about it forever we've talked about tether forever UCC is not particularly sexy UST might have been until you know it imploded too sexy yeah too sexy um but you know but the reality is there's I don't call it 150 billion ish in in dollar back stable coins um in this current environment this is the first time we're going to go into you know an era where you potentially have a currency crisis and you have access to Dollars outside of your banking system which is a huge deal and again I don't think it's as much you know press or or notice well I think it's an extremely important topic right uh the stablecoin layer is almost like the pseudo banking layer in crypto uh you know you got to fit in and then it's where the liquidity sort of collects and increase stability in the space as well so uh it's it's a boring topic until it depicts and then it becomes less boring yeah so uh so so I think you know I I used to have um this quarterly call with like the FED right uh and and my pitch I can tell you what they say to me but I can tell you what I say to them my pitch to them is always that and then to a point that we discussed earlier that usdt is actually very important for for stability in the space so you know they should not be targeting them you should be working with them to to uh to to to to to uh to sort of build the stability and more importantly it actually increases dollar dominance and it serves it serves their purpose as well I mean they're afraid of the deep packing that that creates uh instability but you know insofar as they're able to mitigate that risk you know all the stable coins are very very important in this respect in creating liquidity in the whole Space right um so yeah I mean like you said a bit of a boring topic but you know it's it's good that it's boring you know when there's nothing to talk about and everything is stable right I think we should go on that thread a bit more because again it seems like the US and Regulators are relatively antagonistic to stable coins on the flip side right the US has benefited from the petrol dollar for you know I guess 40s 50s you know onward um and you know there's there's a backlash against that right you have you know oil being denominated and remedy and um you know bilateral contracts between Russia and Saudi Arabia on us like explicit point to get away from the dollar and being you know explicitly being able to avoid sanctions on the other hand the most common stable coin again is dollar backed and if you're in countries you know that are are dealing with hyperinflation I think the first step we've seen is not go to bitcoin immediately it's like how do I get dollars and now there's there's a route for that um so so from my perspective it's actually like the government should be proponing US dollar stable coins you know again not that well I I always had this theory that you know uh that that um in the life of tether like maybe in 2018 19 when Taylor was a bit unstable I always said this theory that the Fed was actually bidding better yeah it makes sense right I mean if it destabilizes and like China and Asia use a lot of of leather uh so I always at this theory that they were the one stabilizing it but it was never right yeah I I think going back to the topic of you know what's considered sexy in crypto I think as you get along the curve of people who've had experience in crypto stable coins are like a top a favorite topic of everyone just because of how much how amazing they are truly it's an innovation um for for the world as a whole I mean the ability for me to send um you know a hundred thousand dollars without having to do infinite kyc uh is such a blessing um if I try to do that with the bank it's like four or five days of paperwork verification in person um you know meetings things like that and then they question you about your own money um so stable coins really solve that problem and I mentioned this on a podcast with Mark yusco too it's just stable coins are the best thing for the US government um so they should definitely be a huge proponent of this um but I think you know what is that expansion of stable coins look like and what does that mean for our market today if you look at the total crypto market cap um today we're about you know a little bit over a trillion dollars or maybe a little bit under a trillion dollars actually um stable coins make up fifteen to sixteen percent of our entire market cap this is a substantial difference than you know even at Peak in 2020 when it was around four percent when crypto prices were depressed um so you're getting more and more liquidity into this market and you're getting more liquidity both in terms of people being able to transact in dollars but also people having access to dollars so now you know exchanges are becoming this amazing place for people that are live in non-american countries to get access to Fiat cash um and protect against you know 20 to 30 percent currency swings which is a humongous blessing for anyone um there's been a lot of conversation about this on Twitter as well um where you know the average retail Trader can now you know if they have their money in the Korean Won it's down 20 on the air you have cash now because you have a usdc market um that is an amazing amazing Innovation and I think it doesn't get enough love and that expands Mansion is probably one of the best ways for crypto to grow yeah I mean I think uh to touch to the broader point about the dollar obviously stable coins is good for the US dollar and we're in a very interesting situation right now in the macro you know history where the US dollar is potentially going to start having a lot of pushback from other countries which we're kind of seeing signs of that of course initially from China and then Russia who are just kind of saying we don't necessarily want a country to just be able to print as much of the reserve currency that everybody then has to like go and beg them for and a lot of the global powers are going to potentially start getting into the digital realm like we've seen potentially with cbdc's where they start deciding that there's a Battleground on digital Fiat and they want to fight the US on that Battleground it's going to be easier for them to fight on this new Battleground the digital Battleground rather than the traditional Fiat Battleground and I think the next few years will see things that are very different from the last you know post Bretton Woods years the dollar is potentially going to have a lot of sentiment against it from other countries for example right now they just gave away like ten thousand dollars in the US to anybody who has a student loan meanwhile you know Europe the euro is getting devalued if you follow the dots what's happening is pensioners who are trying to save Euros for their retirement are paying for Johnny to get a human Humanities degree you know at some like crappy College in the US and that you know Spanish population will eventually catch on for example and say like we don't necessarily want to be funding dollar strength and just kind of letting them print that money and I think the Battleground will happen on the digital side and with cbdc's potentially playing a large role and hopefully also a kind of more libertarian asset that is more retail so I hope Bitcoin potentially can play that role you know people in Bitcoin world are like waiting for the institutions when are the institutions going to put it on their balance sheet actually I think let the institutions play their cbdc game and let's just have kind of a global community of retail users have an alternative to that yeah so there's again a lot of things to impact so there's a lot of innovation going around stable coins which I think is you know a huge and this is everything from what I would say is vanilla and kind of boring like uscc and fully backed and you have the spectrum of again USD UST which was you know not backed at all but you know highly highly liquid and at least not censorable and then you have the Spectrum in between so you have you know fracks and Sello dollars and like you know the entire spectrums I think that's kind of one driver of adoption and Innovation um and then you made some interesting points on on you know who's going to push back so who's gonna push back on you know the dollar and the dollar dominance so I I kind of view crypto as like a release valve for Global markets and it's something that people opt into because it aligns with their you know incentives and so I'm curious on this like idea that I think governments will push back on dollar stable coins but at the end of the day since they're going on Rails that are permissionless it's really up to whoever like the people are going to choose what currency they want to hold so is that first dollars and then then people become skeptical of the US government and say hey we want to move to something like Bitcoin or like how do how do we see that play out and then let's use that as kind of our our jumping Point like what's our our kind of Outlook over the next six 12 months as it relates to crypto and Bitcoin maybe touching a point on the usage of dollars right I mean there's always a lot of talks about this cbdc's and local local currency stable coins uh uh and and the proliferation of that in terms of remittance and stuff but actually practically speaking in the last five years you know whenever we we've done uh because we're in Southeast Asia so we facilitate a lot of crypto based uh movements cross-border the irony is that the main usage is the US dollar stable coin so usdc uh you know busd packs and usdt because uh how it works in terms of course border movements is there's domestic transfer so let's say if somebody wants to send money from Indonesia to China right typically you go to the money changer and you you switch your your IDR to the cmy and you do remittance and the way that the US dollar helps that a usdc or stable coins have that is they do a domestic transfer from IDR to US dollar and then they move the US dollar digitally which takes five five minutes max and and no cost and then they change it to TMI there so what happens is actually is reducing the need for the digitalization of of dollars actually reduces the need for any local currency stable coin because essentially locally most currencies already digital so like in Singapore you have fast transfer you know it's easy right um so actually this uh the digitization of currency actually increases the use case for US dollars so I think that practically speaking uh it actually reduces all the need for cbdc CBD should become only for settlement on for local local uh local settlements and local uh Securities and such but the cross border becomes very very dollar based which is what we are seeing now so uh I mean as to your point is you know whether you know how the US Dollars stable coins play in this in this uh respect a lot of it has become more dollar based than anything yeah yeah um 150 billion dollars is no trivial sum of cash um even for the largest money markets in the world so um I think whatever window of opportunity uh Regulators might have had to clamp down on it now it becomes a humongous collateral damage uh you know impact that's like you can't remove that liquidity or say hey we're going to remove usdt from circulation because now there's hundreds of thousands millions of users who depend on that usdt so now it's much more of a game of collaboration in my opinion um I think in terms of you know can this event you know does this hurt the Bitcoin narrative or this is sort of the eth narrative I don't think so I think it's just a duration thing um so right now uh one of the major reasons why stablecoin proliferation happened in the last two years um is mostly because of the yield that could exist both on chain and also through a centralized lending um so you could get you know almost double digit uh you know lending rates by giving out your usdc or usdt both the centralized exchanges and then also to you know D5 protocols so obviously this is a very attractive um you know overall yield for people to go after but the interesting thing has been since yields have compressed and now there's also been a convergence of yields between very vanilla U.S government bonds and also the compression of uh you know defiled and also the added smart contract risk that exists even amidst all of this you know difficulty uh stablecoin supply has only you know dropped maybe 10 to 15 percent so it shows us more and more that both this cache is here to stay in the long run um hopefully and then also that you know this cache is not just here for yield but also theoretically here to have dry powder to buy crypto or to you know basically facilitate um you know transactions or to you know or for people to just currency hedge so there's more than just one reason one basket pocket for why these stable coins exist and why there's so much value behind them and I think in the long run this ends up coming back into uh you know that that release valve of global liquidity which is it goes into e it goes into Bitcoin it goes into Solana because that is where you know these dollars have the highest velocity I mean I think one thing that's underplayed is the power of community around a certain asset we've seen that in crypto many times like with Luna with other assets where like the community will just kind of decide to store a lot of like their work in a certain asset and like in Southeast Asia as you know India other place as well historically like for many years gold has been used uh for that like people just pass on gold chains to like the Next Generation or they you know they give them at weddings and that's kind of like being used for a long time I think you know a lot of people thought gold was going to do very well right now compared to the US dollar they thought that you know this was the perfect environment for gold and you see a lot of the macro people trying to figure out like why is gold um basically flat it's being a stable coin it's another stable coin it's the gold stable coin and um they they try to come up with ideas and they say like well maybe because you know central banks are they're keeping it down or whatever I think the reality is gold is becoming outdated and that's what the older generation that maybe was very attached to Gold hasn't really given up yet all the new people and the Millennials who are starting to uh you know get some of the wealth as it's kind of passed on are not necessarily going to want gold they're going to want something digital that fits in with their lifestyle because people are not walking up and doing trade with coins anymore everything's happening online and just having a vault in Fort Knox even if you make a a coin that's like a you know we've seen some people try to make gold backed uh you know pack sauce or something like that that hasn't taken off because ultimately like who wants their gold stored by a third government somewhere where you know you don't actually have custody and if you do have custody you have to go around giving people coins nobody wants that so I think gold is going to slowly kind of dwindle down something needs to take its place because people communities do want to have some asset that they can you know give to their children and kind of keep their value in yeah I mean what I'm hearing is like it's it's the the accessibility right that's kind of the differentiator right and the fact that you have control over it right like yields could yields and D5 could approach yields of treasuries but again the accessibility that is very different again you can have a gold back stable coin but at the end of the day gold is still sitting in some vault is controlled by some bank and you know I don't have control over that um and again so like people will naturally opt into that system that aligns with their own instances that they have full control over and I'll drive it option so I I think we have probably two or three minutes left Maybe um everyone cares about you know forecasts and Outlook what's what's our kind of you know end of year and into next year forecast uh briefly it doesn't have to be priced which is kind of what it what's where are we at where we're going maybe I'll stop um so there's some there's some seasonality for yearn really and there is a lot of cash on the sidelines so I'm gonna stick my head out there and say you know be a bit positive on this one yeah um but at the same time I think the space is lacking a narrative so you know we we had the crash and then we had the East merch narrative everyone got really excited you know if price went up and the problem with uh World Traders right now is we we don't see any narrative for the next year until the Bitcoin halving in 24 right so we're sort of looking for a narrative um I'm gonna be positive on this seasonality year end but I I think by and large the next year might be a bit flatish kind of trading with some upside model upside all right I think here you said the right tail was most underpriced versus the left tail what do you uh right yeah I mean um so I I think the overall take for me has been that the right Tales are mispriced compared to the left tail so um whenever you have a Perpetual stream of just negative news let's just say for the last nine months um it's really hard to constantly one-up that negative stream right so it's like you had Russian invasion you have like uh you know energy crisis you have um Europe getting really cold over the uh during the winter um and then you also have bad CPI prints you have sticky core you have and so on and so forth and to some point it just stops becoming that so I think as the markets are constantly getting into both like Global markets in terms of positioning for for uh shorts overall um and then also in crypto you have like record high skus um over you know three to six months uh for Tenors I think it's hard to imagine that there's going to be this Perpetual stream of negative news and a constant stream of deterioration so the right tills are definitely mispriced in my opinion um I think maybe Jordy could agree on this too as as maybe as not the the bull on the stage but um even between crypto and tradfi I think we have a much more compelling case to imagine why crypto has probably bottomed and why you know uh traditional markets may be uncertain and a lot of this has to do with how much front loading of that Carnage that we've had that we spoke about a little bit earlier so going into your end I'm fairly optimistic I think positioning um should also still be cautious generally speaking but I think you're getting to the tail end of this of this really Peak bearishness and peacockishness and I think I'm generally a believer of when you know when the masses are very focused on one concept say inflation or interest rates or Federal Reserve this has probably been the highest you know saturation of these words globally um ever right you know five years ago nobody cared about watching an fomc meeting right um and now it's like you know we watch it like we go to a pub and you're going to watch Jerome Powell speak so um I think when you get to that extent of extremity then uh you know it's hard to misplace the the left Tales I'm going to be concerned if we have a bullish consensus here and then all right so jordy's on stage I said any final comments Jordy yeah I mean I'll I'll end it with a cliche you know short-term cautious long-term very bullish certain things um I'll just quickly explain short term I think you know on the Fed they will keep pushing until they break stuff we're very close to stuff breaking I can kind of sense it like stuff is going to break very soon we're seeing it with the volatility and currencies and treasuries so I'm not necessarily like extremely bullish right now um I think like the next few months we'll see some crazy stuff crazy headlines like we've seen recently with a pound so I'm very cautious longer term I think the thing that makes me extremely bullish for things like Bitcoin in E for example where you have a limited Supply you have kind of a generation that is more and more interested in these assets they're going to be very scarce and what people are not looking at I agree is the right Tale But in the sense of the in in elasticity where nobody will want to sell their eth and their Bitcoin in certain situations and if somebody's going to want to buy a Bitcoin in five years there may not be many of them left that are willing to sell and that means we could get explosive prices so I am very long-term bullish despite the current macro environment yeah a low free float Cuts both ways so we've seen the downside over the last nine months of the next you know 12 to 24 we see the other side of that all right well thank you thank you it's good