Leveraging On-chain & Social Data to Analyse Stablecoin Crown Behaviour

okay I think we start this is the destiny ofing um Alpha information only can be revealed to small group of people anyway um at sentiment we've been since many years actually seven years always interested and uh focusing our time and resources on um collecting evaluating and packing in special way a lot of data onchain social defectivity trading data there is a lot if even you can extract everything from blockchain it's still a lot if even you uh decided okay this all set of metrics for each project it's still a lot so at some point of time because we also manage our own Treasury and our money as a team uh we created and formalized some Frameworks some setups how we make decisions and um as it's a stable uh Summit so one of the Frameworks actually one of our favorite one uh it is related to stable coins we call it Master trade entry setups well actually entry and exits or you can say entry for shorts and I'm glad the market crashed the last I mean glad in a sense I have good food to present anything uh because normally when I'm talking about um it is important to predict the tops or you need to make decisions to exit portfolio it doesn't find a lot of uh empathy and interest from the people now in a in a period of time when uh at least those who are here even say oh it's maybe good maybe next time I can do it better but it's not only it's actually this setup is based on stable coins also very good for entering which we might be now or maybe not we'll see um some candle of top tape it's not many charts uh sometimes I place 15 20 charts this time it will be only four four major steps to rebalance your portfolio with much more wisdom or database decisions we'll talk about uh chart layout in General how we do it and then metrics related to makeal everyone know makad everyone know DSR but not many people I think look into it into specific angle then about Supply borrowing rates on AA compound liquid or major lensing B protocols level of liquidations and a simple on line chart but it's not simple if you know how to complex is to build it h total amount of borrowing or exposure in the crypto Market okay let's start um in general when we talk about uh managing your exposure portfolio it's always uh in our opinion to understand important to understand the r cycles and they have specific uh specific um descriptions a market when it's go start going start getting up it will get hotter hotter hotter and at some point of time it will get overheated and then we need to go down so this overheating or heating up in our hit position it's important for sportting the tops now the moment we start going down there is of course for some time believe correction we buy the Deep everything will be fine but actually Market already in the process of cooling down so if you don't know what is the definitions of cooling down how can you see it on data how can you see in chart when the market cool down you will still keep buying the deep and then the next dip is coming so it's important overheating cooling down and water metrics relevant for it uh there is some K indicators here at least in the current conditions overheat is maybe 15 20% you need to pay for stable coins obviously over heat and the momentum go down to Fed rate maybe plus one we already cool down it's simple M but it's good to keep in mind simple things on the chart it will look much more interesting and um everything better analyzed when you have very nice chart layouts and time series so we start with the simple uh everyone knows make our great project OG's and um whenever we analyze uh uh any market conditions we always look metric on top of the price if you remove the price which is here green it will look kind of interesting but you will not see you will not get an Insight so here green is the price of ethereum a blue line is a DS or stable yield you can get on a money you put in DSA and you will see already here very interesting uh correlation and then the kind of I don't know orange brown it's amount of money deposited to thisr contract um we need to keep in mind when make it's not automatic like a compound or all this Ling borrowing it's a now make a risk analysis and they make decisions what should be a rate we pay for people so they deposit money it's already a kind of crowd-driven decisions they perceive some risk that they will lose money going out of the system and the increase rate and it's only the second time in my observation was the last one was was 21 when that time they increased to 8% it was it came plus minus one week with the market top for whatever reason they increase dramatically rate and Market tops shortly thereafter but also you can see that uh people okay maybe we'll come back there are a lot of interesting details here but just a simple observation and simple uh wisdom when we see there is a stable yield almost no risk 15% it's very overheated market now eight a kind of almost okay if we if they do one more rate cut uh 2 six we in a good territory it might be the final bottom yeah so one observation okay another one and we show here I think yeah and you can do it for our uh usdc usdt you can do it for compound uh all the I usually I like to do on compound for Teta it will show always the same picture again green one is the price and then this orange spiking this is the market conditions yeah when it's a cool down when the market is De the line is dead yeah the market like pulling down but looks like it was not dead completely so it got activate it again yeah one more time here once we pushed to almost to the last highs now we're getting down getting down and finally we came to the uh sweet point of uh 5 and a half% so we might get we might get to the bottom and I will show you one more chart which could give you a chance to say yeah looks like a bottom but whenever we see uh increasing interest uh this is healthy this is healthy see no problem this is not healthy like spiking above make a place you 15% you can put your money to our compound you get 15% even here actually it was 22 23 25 that's not uh definition of uh normal Market conditioning it's already overheated there is too much demand from speculators I can borrow for 25% I can make 50% so it's a story but it doesn't work for a long time so green price and you put on top of it Matrix and you can even see amount of uh money deposited we have plenty more but I simplified it to show the case going forward liquidations now if we come back here you see that this line was normalizing already and here was already for some time but something was missing or let's say you see only this chart and you don't know is it the bottom is it really bad dep removed or too much risk being liquidated you don't know the answer to these questions unless you look here yeah we know historically what means liquidations and like cooling down removing all the overheated speculators it looks like this yeah and you will see every time it pretty much coincides with the bottom final not final but this is a good times when you can indeed uh if you want to take go back to Market you can go all this time small one it was good but it was temporary still small compared so was nothing and now we saw yesterday we saw yesterday day before yesterday we finally saw big capitulations a even told me this is even bigger than it was FX so these are the signs for potential bottom actually quite good maybe solid last time there was another attempt as you see here heavy liquidations and we tried Crush one more time but that's it that was so we either here or here you make your decision it's answering FAA your question is the final I don't I don't know we could be here or we could be here it's the open question I also got to the bottom it as a signal okay the last very interesting one you don't see the formula behind but we aggregate I think 10 all like 80 or 90% of borrowing on all protocols all stable Co and are where all stable coins on Compound on liquidy I think on fra land it's a long formula we put behind and it shows the total amount of u depth in the market how much people are borrowing boring boring and we know that at some point time and we be waiting for it as you see didn't happen long time there will be crowd perception or crowd uh understanding now it got risky we need to reduce our borrowing our exposure to risk last time again it happened shortly before the botom and then we one more time now we saw this event yesterday day before yesterday same story again either we here or here if the history repeats itself one to one then we're here one more recovery fres and it's over and they can we enjoy the life and go to the summer vacations if there is still summer this year no summer in Europe very cold yeah just to show the moment they decide okay it's too risky to have so much exposure or it's being liquidated and then don't take new exposure we will see drop as we see now and then we're close to the relief this period is unknown yeah is this time it was one or two weeks so you can say from now on for two weeks you might suffer or maybe not if you're like it will just go up and that will be the summary if you want to get really access to all the chat layouts with all formulas behind it's not complex formulas because the data science built metrics is simplified you know way to find me those who don't know you can contact and uh we can explain more it's only one of the Frameworks we have at least four or five how we analyze the market and how you can do better decisions or understand what's going on okay any questions I was so fast my godness I was really fast thank you for the talk I think initially I thought heard about your project from the perspective of Twitter sentiment analysis or is it relevant or not yeah yeah so the question was that um people know us from analyzing crypto sentiment from Twitter yes we do it and it's a even okay we still have time so we can do some explorational we do a lot on it and just this time I was completely on on data but indeed our maybe 50% of our success rate is based on social data we do we do um actually even on the main page we can see social simple stuff okay you ask about uh crowd sentiment based on social data it's already quite Advanced there is a simple one if you many people don't use it for whatever reason it's a dominance dominance of you everyone knows Bitcoin dominance based on market cap or ethereum dominance we do the same for social data dominance of conversations in the market about Bitcoin ethereum Solana mcoins in my my opinion they're much more important or insightful than uh even sometimes you don't even need to look into sentiment uh by understanding how dominant is specific conversation about the coin you can already assume or you can make decisions imagine one month ago or two months ago tone coin yeah I will show it now okay and maybe then we will come to the crow sentiment to so let's say t coin and we take social dominance okay um yeah I think it's good enough imagine you have your portfolio T coin and you believe in it so what will be for you definition uh how long should I hold it or should I buy it as long as anyone uh on this level tcoin uh Solana ethereum they kind of competing for major spots it's not like a secondary mem coins which are the short time they compe in major uh social dominance SP and it's typically 4 to 5% of conversations from my experience and if you start comparing you will see so whenever you see any coin on a higher level which does not have this level of conversations you can pretty safely buy it it has not reach it potential or let's say the crowd is not aware of it yet the moment crowd start talking about it and the it will reflect in a Domin or mind share of a crowd then you are getting to dangerous territory all this 1% half% it's nothing you can you can accommodate your position uh this gets in Risk yeah this I think when durov announced during uh Dubai we will do some cool stuff I came publicly yeah but even this was still like two and a half% the was already very very risky yeah so it's about dominance and I want that people understand dominance sometimes is enough and uh why is it enough or powerful very few places you can find this information you see the talks you can measure sentiment by yourself without long algorithms you understand Crow positive negative but you have no idea you cannot aggregate millions of messages to understand how much of them about this coin about this narrative so this is important to keep in mind but back to your topic about weight sentiment okay I press too many buttons okay I just wanted to switch to night mode okay now it's better we're still talking about t coin okay so now we have to okay now it looks good so as always green price of tcoin dominance is here yellow spiking and then we add on top of IT Crowd sentiment yeah we do analyze in this case it includes not only Twitter but only also Telegram and Rit we like aggregate all Crow sentiment and there you can do actually simple yet deep analysis if there is a lot of talk and they're very positive like this was in this case most of the times it's not good topic all too many people in a in a in a crypto space talking about in this case Stone coin and they're very hyped about it expect the danger yeah now at the same time when we have a lot of talk and they're very negative about I don't remember what was this event at this time and we're planning to add here features like a summary what was the conversation yeah then it means we're in a good spot to be when people talking massively and they actually negative it's a simple rule if you're in crypto you know it but here's the data showing it revealing to you so you might start aggregating again and you would experience this growth so combination of dominance of coin or narrative and sentiment off top of it gives you I believe quite a lot of power against uh either against other players so against your own uh emotional driven decisions okay did I answer a question yeah okay anyone else want to know more about Behavior analytic driven decisions a bit too little dat I need to wait more we can actually see what's going I didn't check long time what's going on on bitcoin let's say three months I would say it looks quite healthy it's quite negative I mean compared to previous spikes it's very negative so you see do uh do uh Bitcoin is dominant again and it's very negative usually you need to wait few more days I I I like market conditions when Bitcoin is not dominant but then you can compare also to ethereum what we will get there looks like ethereum is a new Bitcoin it's not dominant much but sentiment is not negative so mixed signals but majority say we might be at the bottom uh Bitcoin negativity a lot of talk all this liquidations which we saw on chain uh decrease of uh uh borrowed money uh decrease of lending rates 80% and it's always about probability 80% at the bottom and uh give it from now for the next two weeks accommodation phase it's a uh on stage market analysis and then in two weeks fabola comes to me Maxim but you said anyway if any more questions okay cool thank you very much was great exposing some hidden Dynamics to smart people enjoy your time enjoy sh yeah thank