The Role of Data in Shaping Crypto Market Trends | Alice Liu - CoinMarketCap

[Music] all right good afternoon ladies and gentlemen welcome to join us I'm so happy to see everyone here I thought we're going to have five people so I'm very glad we have a lot more than that I hope you are all enjoying e Denver my name is Alice I'm head of research at qu market cap I'm normally based in Dubai and it's my first e Denver and I'm seeing so many great new projects and uh all of the new ideas so I'm quite excited for that when the slide pops up I'm going to show you some of the data findings that we have at qu market cap and just to regroup on some of the trends we are seeing in the Market at the moment all right well that's getting fixed I was uh flying in to Denver when the by beat ether hack happened so I was on the plane tracking all of the uh tweets and all of the new um updates I do want to say I was feeling quite bullish before we got in here because uh BTC was pricing close to 100K and ethereum seems to be doing well as well but all of a sudden that happened just wanted to quickly regroup on that 1.5 billion USD act and this morning when I checked um you know at the peak of it it was 499,000 ether in the hacker wallet that's more way more than what balic had in his 240,000 but this morning I checked only about 9,000 ether is still left a majority of the funds is already laed out and that has some knockout impact for us in the market and we are seeing uh from 6 days ago when the incident happened till today we are seeing uh both BTC either and all of the large cap coins dropping on average about 15% 6 days 15% and uh another interesting thing that I spotted this morning altcoin season do you guys believe that we're steing an altcoin season coin market cap has a altcoin season index um how we measure it it's the top 100 coins in the market right now their performance for the past 19 days uh on average and we compare that with BTC if 75% of those coins outperform BTC then we're firmly in the altcoin season but guess how much it is right now 20 20 so we're firmly in BTC season at the moment why I mention this because on the 100 coins on CMC only six out of 100 of performed BTC for the past six days and that's how bad the impact of uh bybe has been for us and now I'm very glad thanks to uh our team that we got the slice back home and I can show you some of the data that I was talking about first thing first I just couldn't get this up to date as much as possible cuz BTC right now is way below 80 87,000 I want to use this to show you guys some of the uh data and impact that we're having Market remains bearish for q1 and the CMC crypto fair and GD Index right now is at 20 so we're uh going to the extreme Fair territory and the market has been lacking the North Star the last one we had was Trump's inauguration on the 20th and this is a performance of all the three uh the three coins major coins out there compared with the 20th of January as you can see the performance has been really bad uh impacted by the market now you ask uh q1 is cancelled uh on the uh on the bull runs but what about Q2 and what are the opportunities on the horizon at the moment three major challenges number one is TG a liquidity ends on the 1 of April right so a lot of the injections liquidity injections from the uh treasury General accounts will end and number two is the Tariff begins a lot of the talks uh for Mexico China and Europe as well with the us at the moment number three is the March Dot Plot impact next fat meeting 19th of March and by the look of it we're not going to get another rate Cuts so in general Q2 is still looking a lot bearish for us at the moment this is the ALCO season I've been mentioning just now so Quin market cap uh we collect all those data as you can see uh out coin season is 25 out of 100 and BTC dominance in the market is about 57% when we had the peak of the altcoin Season that actually happened at the beginning of uh December so that says the 9th of December when we hit the when we hit the peak of uh allcoin season that's roughly about 87 if you guys remember what it feels like back then beginning of December what you were trading that was firmly the start of the mcoin Season we kick started with the rwa kick started with AI agents and the whole ball run that we had following the first and second week of December that's what it Felts like when the altcoin ISS here now the top 100 altcoins uh performance over 90 days BTC as you can see majority of them have been underperforming negative printing active performance and for all the coins that are up above Bitcoin I want to use this chart to show you one thing which is the out coin season for this Market is going to be vastly different from what we had before you will never have a everything pump odd season again and there are a few characteristics I will show you later on but remember some of this top performers we have baring H liquid bigat uh well you can spot some of the mem coin tokens out there as well but what really shocking is the next one calling out for the bottom performers now does this look Sim uh familiar because last month when I was doing a similar presentation some of those meme coins that we are seeing on this chart have been one of the top performing coins for the top 100 tokens out there so characteristics of this outp coin season High F low liquidity limit retail money so top tier projects may miss out some of this some of these names I don't really want to call out but they have been uh a a lot of the top performing uh big VC projects that you didn't print such a good performance now the second thing is market trends really fade fast as I said a month ago some of these bottom guys would be the top and now if you look at the top ones today how long are they going to stay there for we did the math on average n days nine days what you get for the spotlight and attention is really all you need so when the market is Shifting that quickly it is hard to capture the trend so you need to be in hyper listening mood for this out coin season in order to seize the performance and number three is memes and memei projects show disproportionate price returns sadly even in some sectors such as AI such as AI agents you still have meem fied AI or AI agents projects that are uh doing a lot more on the marketing side than it is actually on the building side and sadly in this outco coin season they are being rewarded with disproportionate Returns on that note M season actually has ended trading activities and project launch levels return back to the September level that we saw yesterday uh last year what what you are seeing here is the m coin sector uh total market cap uh if you go on to co market cap you'll see that's categorized and you can see a massive drop both in terms of market cap as well as treat volume pum do fun has a even more um straightforward story here because you can see number one on the left hand side that's the token launcher on pump off fund and you can see the peak of that in January and then the decline afterwards and if you look at the week weekly volume it tells the same story graduating to uh tokens that have graduated on pump off F really collapsed in January we had 24,000 projects uh tokens graduated J on pump up fund this month 11,000 last week it was even worse we're virtually down to pretty much zero at the moment um and then the token launch is falling off a cliff as well weekly volume is similar to that of a September market last year okay now this is interesting part qu market cap has about 400 million visits a month so it collect a lot of of data on what people are looking at how long they are staying on the page what are they engaging what projects they are looking how what are they commenting on we organize all of those information and this is our proprietary data these are the top viewed sectors on coin market cap and how that is has changed week on week from the beginning of this this year to be honest salana ecosystem had its highlights when the meme coin season kicked ining and you can see somewhere in the middle know the fourth bar or the fifth bar uh when Soul really had its uh its time but now we're rotating back to the orange one which is ethereum ecosystem so we're seeing another huge Spike uh of rotation of attention back into e uh ethereum ecosystem and that for the sectors that are benefiting the most out of this mostly are wa and AI agents and AI related projects if we break that down for each individ ual sector which coins are people viewing and what are they engaging these are the top five most viewed coins in each sector so some of the names might uh surprise you guys but to be honest um you can clearly tell so I do very much a meain focus and uh ecosystem and single Trump which is the pink token uh and that has accounted for a large proportion of the views and p uh page views and user engagements what about the US users around the world we collect all the information on how the crypto nation has been evolving and different markets traditionally us has always been the number one market for crypto regularly we would have something about 20 to 25% market share for the US market it has been on the downtrend for the past 3 month which is quite uh country to what people think because everyone anticipate the Trump Administration means a boost to crypto industry and more users on boarded but doesn't seem so yet so for the past month or so we have seen the um MIM Point Trend really transfer the global user Behavior India become the second largest nation in uh in on crypto world map and that is now Counting about close to 11% of all the users uh in crypto coming from India at the moment Brazil also got a a boost as well but us and Europe has being on the decline all right so if we look at the top 30 projects on CMC that are getting user engagements this are this are uh sort of ecosystem mapping of what they are so this is based on their comments of bullish and bearish rates so what you are seeing the percentage there is what the community feels on CMC about how bullish they are about a project you can see first thing is majority of the top 30 is Du from in the mcoin sector another interesting thing is infra did get a huge boost I haven't seen this many infra projects in the most popular categories before but certainly that seems to be a trend L1 has demonstrated to us that it's gaining a lot of traction as well most viewed coins by region this is the first time I'm seeing such um similar profile across a different regions normally we would have the top five most viewed coins in uh Asia in Africa quite different to that of uh uh North America for example but this is the first time that a whole crypto nation is United that's number one number two is Bitcoin historically being it's very normal for them to be gaining 50 something over 50% over half half uh half part of the crypto's uh coin views for BTC but this time it's really uh decreasing but you can see the the Yellow Part the power of trump all right so that is all the data points I wanted to show you guys and I hope you find something interesting in this finding all the bar charts can uh sorry all the bar codes can take you to some of the research that we do I do run a weekly crypto podcast um every Monday to regroup on any of the news Etc this week we had had historical uh High number of listeners 70,000 uh people so if you guys are interested I would love to have you there as well enjoy e Denver and uh thank you very much