Arthur Hayes Breaks Down What’s Coming Next in Crypto at KBW2025

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If global liquidity started falling, um, specifically if the United States changed its stance to the trajectory of credit that they wish to issue to re-industrialize the country, if Japan started to reduce their money supply, if the European Union member countries started to want to run balanced budgets and commit to austerity, so in short, um, the global politicians decide that they want to restrict economic activity and stop printing money.

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So, this the genius act, I think, just codifies the leadership that's already in place, um, Tether, Circle, Athena, um, and then maybe some fintech players like, uh, Facebook or, uh, X or these kind of companies who will issue a stable coin, by law, will be mandated to purchase Treasury bills, uh, which will essentially give, you know, trillions of dollars of buying power at the hands of best interest to issue very low cost debt to these issuers within will pay it out to, uh, their holders.

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I don't think there's any opening for smaller players unless you have a a large um, existing client base or tie it with some distributor who has a large existing client base, I think it's a futile attempt to attempt to, um, buy your way into the ecosystem.

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Uh, well, I think the a change in administration in terms of whether the market is comfortable or confident that they're going to continue to print money, let's say that in 2028 there's a Democrat in the United States who comes in and who is very, uh, anti whatever Trump did, which basically means expanding the money supply at least initially, then I think the market could freak out and send, uh, crypto and all sorts of other risk assets that are based on credit creation much lower very quickly.

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